Although part of the party, especially in the Northeast, sees real chances of supporting the president in 2026, several obstacles still make a formal alliance difficult.
O is divided on the direction to follow in the 2026 presidential election. Although a wing of the party, especially in the Northeast, sees real chances of supporting the in 2026, there are several factors that weigh against a formal alliance. The main obstacle is the need to elect a strong bench in the . Not associating with any presidential candidate, for example, allows marriages of convenience in each state. The argument is used by defenders of the MDB’s neutrality in the 2026 presidential contest, a position that is not entirely rejected by members of the more government wing.
In 2022, MDB launched to the Presidency. Even so, some regional leaders declared their vote for Lula in the first round. With the second round of the election defined between the PT member and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Tebet supported the current president. The party freed its directorates to take whatever position they wanted, depending on the correlation of forces in each state, and today commands three ministries: Planning, with Tebet; Transport, with Renan Filho, and Cities, with Jader Filho.
The situation could be repeated next year. Lula’s allies in the MDB believe that it would be desirable, but not essential, to nominate the vice president on the ticket. The governor of Pará, Helder Barbalho, and minister Renan Filho were even mentioned for a possible collaboration with Lula. Helder, however, is moving to be a candidate for the Senate and Renan Filho, to run for the government of Alagoas, a state he previously administered.
The MDB’s decision will be up to the party’s national convention. There are almost 500 votes, divided between regional delegates and political office holders. The directorates of Pará, with nine deputies, and São Paulo, with five, represent the two main forces of the party. The one in Pará is closer to Lula. The São Paulo native is divided between supporting the possible candidacy of governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) or another name that could be endorsed by Bolsonaro. There are also those who defend joining the president’s campaign for a new term or even a neutral position.
Party members argue that this correlation of forces at the national convention could favor Lula. The mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), assures, however, that he will defend a position contrary to this agreement. Nunes was elected with the support of Bolsonaro and, next year, he could run for Palácio dos Bandeirantes, if Tarcísio runs for President. In this scenario, a national alliance between the MDB and the PT would be unfeasible.
A directory considered decisive is that of Minas Gerais, led by deputy Newton Cardoso Junior (MDB-MG). Recently, Newton participated in an event with the president, in Belo Horizonte. At the same time, he gave a nod to Bolsonarism when he voted in favor of the urgent processing of the amnesty project for those convicted of the coup attempt. The dispute for the Minas Gerais MDB also involves the formation of an alliance for the election to the state government. Lula’s preferred candidate to enter the race in Minas is senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), a name also considered to occupy a vacancy on the Federal Supreme Court (STF).
Currently, the MDB has 42 federal deputies. The size of the benches is used to divide the party fund and that is why party leaders focus their efforts on electing as many federal deputies as possible. In the case of centrist parties, not being with any of the candidates that polarize the national scene – the PT and Bolsonarism, at this moment – is useful because it allows, regionally, their affiliates to form strategic alliances.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
