Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas already shows worrying signs after historic agreement

On Monday the 13th, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza led to the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. It was the culmination of a long and tortuous process – but ultimately, it may have been the easiest part.

One day after signing the agreement, however, both sides began to show worrying signs. This Tuesday, Israel delayed the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza and kept the border closed, while Hamas terrorists increased their presence in Gaza and demonstrated their control by executing men in the street.

Three Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel decided to restrict aid to the devastated Gaza Strip and postpone plans to open the border crossing into Egypt until at least Wednesday because Hamas was too slow to hand over the bodies of the dead hostages. The terrorist group said locating the bodies is difficult.

Meanwhile, Hamas quickly retook the streets of urban areas of Gaza following the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops last week. In a video circulating online, Hamas terrorists dragged seven men with their hands tied to a square in Gaza City, forced them to their knees and executed them as dozens of onlookers watched. A Hamas source confirmed that the video was filmed on Monday and that Hamas fighters took part in the executions. Reuters was able to confirm the location.

Palestinians attempted to cross a line established for their troops, provided for by the ceasefire plan mediated by the United States and which foresees Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Palestinian territory. According to the Israeli Army, the suspects approached Israeli soldiers, who opened fire after “attempts to remove the suspects” were not obeyed. Five people died in the incident, Palestinian health officials said.

Despite being a minor incident, it raises a warning sign. In an interview on Tuesday, the 14th, the spokesman for the terrorist group Hamas, Hazem Qassem, said that the attacks constituted “a clear violation of the ceasefire” by Israel, which would be a threat to the agreement. He also called on mediators to monitor Israel’s conduct and “prevent it from evading its commitments to end the war in the Gaza Strip.”

Furthermore, mediators fear that Hamas will resist the intention to disarm or abandon power in Gaza – two main demands of the ceasefire agreement it accepted a few days ago. He stated in an interview on Saudi broadcaster Al Arabiya that the issue of Hamas disarmament is “complex and delicate, but solvable within the framework of a comprehensive national approach.” The group’s spokesperson then emphasized that “there are several approaches that can ensure security and stability without compromising the Palestinians’ right to self-defense.”

This is the kind of detail that analysts and mediators fear could cause the deal to fall apart. Important details of the peace plan may remain unclear. Specific details will need to be negotiated to keep the plan moving forward and avoid a resumption of fighting. The path to lasting peace, stability and eventual reconstruction will be long and very difficult.

“The first steps to peace are always the hardest,” President Donald Trump said alongside foreign leaders in Egypt on Monday during a summit on the future of Gaza. He hailed the ceasefire agreement he negotiated between Israel and Hamas as an end to the war in Gaza – and the beginning of reconstruction of the devastated territory.

And while Trump expressed optimism that the most challenging part was over — “Rebuilding is maybe the easiest part. I think we’ve done a lot of the hard part, because the rest falls into place” — others were more cautious about the complexities that lie ahead.

“Peace has to start somewhere,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She called it an important moment and “euphoria.” But, Yacoubian warned, “unfortunately, I think there are several potential points of failure going forward.”

Much to be resolved

As presented publicly, the plan is full of unanswered questions.

It is unclear how and when Hamas will disarm, nor where its weapons will go, as are plans for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. A new security force will be established for Gaza, made up of troops from other nations, but it is not known which countries will send forces, how they will be used and what will happen if they encounter resistance. It is also unclear who will be part of a temporary government council for Gaza, where it will be located and how the population will react.

To iron out these details and prevent fighting from returning, the United States and other nations that pushed for a ceasefire must continue to exert pressure and pay attention, experts say.

All of this adds up to a legacy of conflict, deep distrust between the parties and a vague and conditional possibility of an eventual Palestinian state – an issue that has been a central point of contention for decades. “When you realize how much there is still to be done for the current pause to be maintained, that’s when it all becomes very scary,” Yacoubian said.

Since the war began with the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, two other ceasefires have come and gone with no progress other than temporary pauses in fighting and limited exchanges of hostages and prisoners. With Hamas demanding a permanent end to the fighting and Israel demanding the release of all hostages, negotiations on post-war agreements never got off the ground. These positions began to change after Trump’s re-election, when he leveraged his power and relationships – both with Israel and with Arab mediators with influence over Hamas – to move things forward.

The reasons for skepticism are multiple

Despite the enthusiasm for this latest agreement, there are reasons for skepticism, not the least of which is the fact that US attempts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have failed for decades.

Starting with the 1991 Madrid Conference and going through several moments – among them the historic Oslo agreements in 1993 and 1995, which created the Palestinian Authority – all efforts to restart the process until 2014 failed.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the current ceasefire is “a welcome and meaningful but fragile pause.” Now, she said, the question is “whether it will collapse completely or merely serve as a chance for both sides to reorganize rather than a launching pad for progress on these issues. That will depend on President Trump and the other actors he is coordinating with to stand firm.”

In the peace proposal brokered by the Trump administration, it remains unclear to what extent agreements have been reached on two of the biggest points of contention: the extent of Israel’s withdrawal and the extent of Hamas’ removal from power. Israel continues to control about half of Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was careful to say on Monday that he is “committed” to Trump’s peace plan, but he did not declare an end to the war. Over the past two years, he has repeatedly promised to achieve “total victory” over Hamas. Hamas, although weakened after two years of war, is far from being out of government and completely disarmed, as Netanyahu wanted.

It is also unclear who will oversee all this in the so-called “Peace Council,” which Trump has said he will chair. Despite Trump’s plan announcing that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair would help lead the council, the president also left this open on Sunday the 12th. Palestinians expressed discontent with Blair’s possible involvement.

“I like Tony. I’ve always liked Tony, but I want to make sure he’s an acceptable choice for everyone,” Trump told reporters as he flew to Israel.

What’s left to clean up is devastation

The resolution of all these details comes in a context where the Gaza Strip is in need of “mass rehabilitation,” Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said, and a population that has suffered unremitting physical and psychological trauma.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed. More than 90% of Gaza’s population of more than 2 million people is displaced. The medical system is destroyed. Houses and buildings are devastated. Agricultural lands were devastated. Hunger is widespread.

These urgent needs will need to be met while establishing transitional systems of security and governance. “There’s really no sequencing luxury here,” Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said. “Everything has to happen at the same time.”

The World Bank, the United Nations and the European Union estimated earlier this year that the cost of rebuilding Gaza would be around $70 billion. Wealthy Arab states are expected to help with this cost, but this accession must be accompanied by guarantees that there will be a path to Palestinian independence and that there will be no return to fighting.

The biggest point of contention is a Palestinian state, which Trump’s plan presents as a possibility only after a long period of transition in Gaza and a process of reform of the Palestinian Authority. It’s something Netanyahu and his partners oppose.

Yacoubian said the agreement reached by the Trump administration seemed “purposely very vague” on the issue of creating a Palestinian state. According to her, the agreement seemed to have been designed to “strike a balance between the minimum that the Palestinians and their Arab supporters would accept”, without mentioning a “two-state solution”, which appears to remain unviable for Israel.

Upon his return to the US on Monday night, Trump brushed aside questions about an independent Palestinian state and told reporters it was separate from his plan to rebuild Gaza.

“A lot of people like the one-state solution. Some people like the two-state solution. We’ll have to see,” Trump said. “At some point, I will decide what I think is right, but I will be coordinating with other states and other countries.”

Robert Wood, deputy US ambassador to the UN during the Biden administration, vetoed several UN Security Council resolutions calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. He said the next phase will be difficult and “require an enormous amount of work.”

“The government needs to stay engaged, especially at the highest levels, for this to have a chance to work,” Wood said. “The war is not over yet.”

*Reporter for Associated Press.