The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)leads scenarios and remains the favorite for re-election to Palácio dos Bandeirantes in 2026, according to a survey released by paraná research institute this Tuesday (14).
They were heard 1,680 voters em 86 municipalities in São Paulo between the days October 9th and 12th. The margin of error is 2.4 percentage pointsmore or less. The confidence level is 95%.
This Tuesday’s survey evaluated seven possible first round scenarios (see details in the graphs below). In the three in which he appears, Tarcísio has a wide advantage over the other names.
In the first frame, the governor has 48,3% of voting intentions, against 27,2% of the vice-president and minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). Then the federal deputy appears Erika Hilton (PSOL-SP)com 9,5%.
Paulo Serra (PSDB)former mayor of Santo André, in ABC Paulista, marks 3,8%and the former presidential candidate Felipe D’Avila (New), 1,1%. Blank, null and none votes are 6,3%. Others 3,9% they didn’t know or didn’t give an opinion.
In the second panorama, Tarcísio points out 50,1%ante 25,1% of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT). Subsequently, there are Erika Hiltoncom 8,8%e Paulo Serrawhich indicates 4,5%. Already Felipe D’avila mark 0,9%.
Blank, null and none add up 6,1%while 4,4% they didn’t know or didn’t give an opinion.
In the third situation, the head of the São Paulo Executive emerges with 52,7% — around 40 percentage points ahead of the Minister of Entrepreneurship, Márcio França (PSB)which has 12,6%and of Erika Hiltonwhich scores 11,7%.
Next, you see Paulo Serra, with 4,9%and the Minister of Health, Alexandre Padilha (PT)which notes 4,6%. Felipe D’Avilawhich indicates 1,4%date to list.
White, null and none total 7,6%. Others 4,5% they didn’t know or didn’t give an opinion.
Other scenarios
Second round
The survey also analyzed six second-round scenarios. Check out the results below:
