Facts are stubborn. And arithmetic, even more so. For decades, analysts have bemoaned America’s supposed decline. Meanwhile, China’s rise seemed inevitable—until reality rewrote the script. The US has not only survived each crisis: . The next decade? It’s theirs.
Not by chance, but because they control structural monopolies that no rival can replicate. If China faces mathematical impossibilities, America accrues cumulative advantages. Jared Diamond showed in Guns, Germs, and Steel that the fate of civilizations is shaped by structural factors, not by discourses. This is exactly what we see today: geography, energy, capital, demographics, alliances and culture — foundations that support American supremacy.
The innovation monopoly
By 2024, more than 90% of disruptive innovations in artificial intelligence will come from the US. The country concentrates 70% of global advanced computing capacity, 60% of top researchers and hosts leading models (GPT, Claude, Gemini).
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This domain is not just money, it is an ecosystem: cutting-edge universities, abundant venture capital, talent immigration and a culture that transforms failure into learning. Silicon Valley has been considered dead many times. Today it is more dominant than ever.
The dollar monopoly
50 years ago they announced the death of the dollar. But each crisis only strengthened the American currency. Today, 59% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF COFER, 2023), 88% of foreign exchange transactions have the dollar on one side (BIS, 2022) and 70% of global debt is issued in the currency.
The US has the largest equity ($50 trillion), debt ($51 trillion) and private ($15 trillion) markets. No other country offers depth, liquidity and institutional trust. When China sneezes, capital rushes into Treasuries.
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The energy monopoly
In the 1970s, America seemed doomed to dependence. Today it is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, net exporter and leader in energy innovation (EIA, 2023). THE shale oil reduced industrial costs, American LNG (liquefied natural gas) became a geopolitical weapon, and the matrix grew in renewables, modular nuclear and new technologies.
Cheap and abundant energy is the invisible oxygen of industry and defense. No other economy combines energy independence with exports.
The geography monopoly
The United States has extensive coastlines with two oceans, stable neighbors, navigable rivers and fertile land. In a world of supply battles, American geography is a natural fortress, as was proven in both World Wars.
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China, in contrast, faces 14 land borders, seas controlled by U.S. allies and chronic dependence on vital imports.
The demographic monopoly
While China loses 10 million workers a year and gains 20 million retirees, the US has the advantage of importing youth. More than 1 million legal immigrants enter each year (DHS, 2023). Every foreign engineer who stays in Silicon Valley generates future GDP.
There is a lot of talk about restrictive policies, but it is necessary to separate reality from rhetoric: the focus is on curbing illegal immigration and criminal flows, not stopping the entry of brains. America has always been — and will continue to be — the most attractive hub for global talent.
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The monopoly of alliances
No country has anything comparable to the United States, linked to groups such as NATO, AUKUS, Quad, G7 and Five Eyes. The combined GDP of the allies exceeds US$50 trillion, almost half of the 2024 global GDP of US$110 trillion, according to the IMF.
The Pentagon, for example, has been transforming Taiwan into a “porcupine”: an island so armed that invading it would be suicide. This deterrent strategy reinforces the web of alliances that surround China.
The culture monopoly
Soft power is aspiration. English spoken in the United States is today the language of science, business and the internet. Hollywood exports dreams through movie theaters around the world, or in the palm of your hand, thanks to streaming services. China exports surveillance. Soft power does not need a visa.
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Practice reinforces theory
These monopolies are not theoretical: they are reinforced every day. The State Department sews friend-shoring with India, Vietnam and Mexico, the Treasury modernizes the dollar with stablecoins and tokenized Treasuries, and Congress authorizes investments in chip factories, modular nuclear power, and data centers.
In contrast
China faces mathematical impossibilities, while the United States accumulates structural advantages. Its economy works like a pressure cooker without a valve, while the US has institutions capable of absorbing crises. While wasting capital on zombie factories, Americans attract global resources to deep markets. Furthermore, it depends on the import of energy and food, unlike the USA, which is an exporter of these resources.
Jared Diamond showed in Collapse that societies collapsed when elites doubled down on failed models. This is exactly China’s risk. The US, on the contrary, turns each crisis into a restart.
The scenario that repeats itself
Japan grew old in peace because it had democratic valves. The Soviet Union imploded because it could not admit mistakes. China faces both dilemmas at the same time, combined with an unprecedented debt bubble.
America is the opposite, as its strength lies in making mistakes and correcting, in transforming crises into restarts, in accumulating advantages that are impossible to replicate.
As Mark Twain said, “facts are stubborn.” And arithmetic is the most stubborn fact of all. Therefore, the 21st century will not be Chinese. It will be American — once again.
