After four months below two points, inflation once again showed a slight acceleration in Argentina. The price index registered an increase of 2.1% in September and accumulates 22% in 2025. The data was known this Tuesday, while he met at the White House with Donald Trump, seeking to close a United States rescue for his faltering economic plan.
The far-right Government of Argentina expected an exultant day, less than two weeks before the national legislative elections. But it was a complicated day. Although, he included, as a condition, a good result in the elections on Sunday the 26th, to which the president arrives at his worst moment. The warning generated greater financial instability and bonds and stocks of the South American country fell. As if that were not enough, the International Monetary Fund worsened its forecasts for the Argentine economy this year.
The slight acceleration of inflation was, in this context, the least negative data of the day for Milei. The consumer price index had shown a rate of 2.8% in April and had since stabilized between 1.5% (May) and 1.9% (August). It was estimated that in the last month there would be an increase, due to the depreciation of the Argentine peso against the dollar. And this was confirmed by the Argentine Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
The official report specified that September inflation was 2.1% monthly and that the annual measurement reached 31.8%. Although this is a low rate compared to that recorded in Argentina in previous years—and therein lies the main achievement that Milei proclaims—Indec detailed that there were sectors of the economy where increases exceeded 3 percentage points in the month.
The item with the greatest increases was housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, with 3.1%. The same percentage of increases was verified in education. Then followed the transportation category, with 3%. On the other hand, the item with the lowest price variation was restaurants and hotels, hit by the drop in consumption, with just 1.1%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, key in determining poverty and indigence, had increases of 1.9% in the country.
Along with the inflationary advance, this Tuesday it was learned that the IMF worsened its forecasts for Argentina’s economy. The WEO report estimated activity growth of 4.5% for this year. In the previous report, dated April, the agency’s forecasts indicated a GDP expansion of 5.5%. The deterioration also extends to the price index. The multilateral had previously forecast annual inflation of 35.9% for 2025, but corrected the data upwards and estimated that it will reach 41.3%.
The data prepared by the IMF for 2026 contrast with the optimistic estimates of the Ultra Government. The multilateral estimates for next year an activity growth of 4% and an inflation of 16.4%. Milei’s budget project, on the other hand, predicts GDP growing by 5 points and annual inflation of 10%.
