Israel does not fully comply with Trump’s peace plan while accusing Hamas of violations; the progress of the agreement is the biggest threat to the prime minister’s position since the start of the war
A week after the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, the peace agreement presented by the United States proved to be more fragile than the one propagated by President Donald Trump (Republican). Both the Israeli government and Hamas leaders point out violations and do not indicate that they will follow through on the plan.
Still in the early stages of the truce, Hamas ruled out the possibility of demilitarization, failed to hand over all the hostage bodies within 72 hours and began a campaign of executions of members of rival factions in Gaza. The government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kept the Rafah border closed for humanitarian aid and allowed less than 1/6 of the trucks with supplies to enter the Palestinian enclave.
The extremist group’s failure to return all hostage remains has been used by the Israeli government to question the validity of the ceasefire agreement. And it could be the spark for the failure of a new attempt to end the war in the Middle East, which began more than 2 years ago.
“There are still many uncertainties and many obscurities regarding the future of this relationship. And the ceasefire, which started out very fragile, is daily proving that this truce will not be respected by the State of Israel”said João Amorim, researcher and professor of international law at Unifesp (Federal University of São Paulo).
Netanyahu’s administration has already been accused by family members of hostages of coordinating military actions in areas of risk for prisoners still alive and for the future location of the bodies of the rest. This is what Hamas claims. According to the Palestinian militia, the bodies that were not found were in places bombed by the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). Without the arrival of heavy machinery to remove the rubble, the tendency is for these bodies to remain missing, putting Trump’s peace plan into question.
This result would not be bad for Israel’s prime minister. His government is currently maintained by the perpetuation of the war, which has paralyzed investigations against the prime minister for corruption. The conflict is what holds back the support that “Bibi” has in Parliament from religious factions even further to the right than his party (Likud).
“There is a political and legal cost and risk for Netanyahu, with the end of military action in Gaza and with the subsequent post-conflict developments in relation to his maintenance in power”declared professor João Amorim. “As the situation in the Gaza Strip stabilizes in conditions that are extremely favorable to the formation and stabilization of the Palestinian people […] I believe they increase the chances of him losing power”he completed.
The advancement of the US peace plan is in part a defeat for the most religious wing of the government, which defends the extermination of Hamas and the occupation of Palestinian territory by Israel. The agreement proposes the opposite: amnesty for the group’s members and the creation of an internationally recognized Palestinian State.
Even if the breakthrough peace agreement does not lead to Netanyahu’s downfall, the prime minister could be tested at the polls next year. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026. Likud, the prime minister’s party, leads with voting intentions far from what is necessary to obtain the majority of seats in the Knesset.
Polls project that his party would win 27 to 34 seats out of the 120 in Parliament. Adding the parties that currently form the government, the margin is still small: 48 to 66 seats.
The fragmented opposition is an obstacle to the change of power. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s group is the best placed in the polls, but he did not confirm his pre-candidacy. Bennett governed from 2021 to 2022 alternating with the current opposition leader, Yair Lapid. The alliance was formed to prevent Netanyahu’s return to power, but was dissolved 1 and a half years later. Researcher João Amorim’s assessment is that the war gave the opposition more conditions to unite.
“He is responsible for increasing the insecurity of the Israeli population in its own territory and in the world and universalizing international public opinion in defense of the Palestinian cause. This, together with international pressure, including from historical allies of the formation of the State of Israel, will weigh enormously on a future parliamentary election and government formation.”said the Unifesp professor
With or without Netanyahu, Amorim said that the relationship between the United States and Israel will not be affected, which gives hope for the success of the armistice in Gaza. For him, not even the unfeasibility of Trump’s request for Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Netanyahu would be able to weaken bilateral relations.
“It is an umbilical alliance much deeper than the transience of governments. The North American president who signs an order suspending military and military financial aid to Israel falls the next day”concluded the researcher.
