There is practically a consensus among analysts in Bolivia: regardless of who triumphs at the polls in the second round of elections this Sunday (19), the country’s future president will have the difficult task of promoting structural reforms to begin to lift the country out of the deep crisis in which it is immersed.
In one, Bolivians ended nearly two decades of Bolivian governments. MAS (Movement to Socialism)a party founded by former president Evo Morales, and opted for right-wing candidates: senator and former mayor Rodrigo Paz, from the Christian Democratic Party, and former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, from Aliança Liberdade e Democracia.
There are, however, differences in their views on what the remedy for the crisis is and the level of reforms that should be carried out.
For political sociologist Franco Gamboa, a Fulbright professor from La Paz, Jorge Quiroga represents a ideology liberal market, contrary to the political process and the economic development model implemented by MAS over the last 20 years.
Regarding the other candidate, Gamboa recalls that, despite defending the motto “capitalism for all”, Rodrigo Paz never defined himself as a liberal, nor as a defender of the market economy.
“He knows that economic restructuring is necessary, but at the same time he indicates that he wants to maintain, in some way, the main policies of previous governments”, he tells CNN.
For economist Luis Paz Ybarnegaray, by defining himself as a centrist, the candidate can capture a strong vote in rural areas and popular urban areas.
“Rodrigo Paz can channel more of this vote, which is huge in Bolivia and was led by Evo Morales and the MAS. In , this resulted in white and null votes, of which there were many, and now this rural vote is being reoriented”, he points out.
One of the main differences in approaches to overcoming the crisis is how to obtain currency that causes shortages in the country.
Derived from the decline in the production and export of natural gas — which went from 288.9 million in August 2022 to 92.7 million in August 2025 — the lack of dollars is reflected in problems such as lack of fuel, which is almost entirely imported, and high inflation.
Other consequences were the unavailability of dollars in banks for deposit withdrawals, the imposition of limits on the use of credit cards abroad and the formation of a parallel exchange market, in which the North American currency is traded at twice the official exchange rate.
IMF loan
For Quiroga, to end the currency shortage, it will be necessary to negotiate with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) a loan of US$2 billion to US$4 billion during the government transition.
According to the candidate, the urgency is due to the fact that “the country cannot last another month without fuel”.
He also proposes resorting to other organizations, such as the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the Andean Development Cooperation.
Rodrigo Paz stated in the last debate that he will not resort to asking for billions of dollars to hand over to “powerful people”, so that medium and small investors do not benefit.
According to him, it is possible to adjust the shortage situation with US$3.5 billion in credits already approved for the country by the cooperation funds from various countriesthe unification of different types of exchange rates and the establishment of exchange rates for the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate. Paz did not specify the origin of the credits mentioned.
Public sector and state-owned companies
To combat the fiscal deficit, Rodrigo Paz defends the freezing of hiring of workers by the State and the suspension of activities of all deficit-making state companies and hiring by the State.
Quiroga, on the other hand, wants to cut ministries, eliminate institutions he considers unnecessary and reduce the number of public sector workers.
Questioned by CNN whether he would use the “chainsaw” to cut costs like , he replied: “Chainsaw, axe, scissors and everything you can find.”
As for state-owned companies, their plan is to review their operations to make them profitable, close them, hand them over to workers or sell them.
He also proposes a “popular ownership” scheme for public companies, giving shares in state-owned companies to all Bolivians of legal age, so that they can receive dividends.
Position on the Mercosur
Quiroga claims to be in favor of free trade and against the imposition of tariffs on imports. “I will be very aggressive in signing free trade agreements and bilateral investment protection treaties,” he told CNN in August.
In the same interview, he stated that he likes it as a mechanism for regional integration, but not as part of the bloc’s commercial dynamics.
“I’m not interested in participating on the commercial side, because it’s entering a commercial prison in which you need to increase external taxes. It’s very protectionist. I want to reduce rates, make free trade agreements with Europe, with Asia, like Chile and Peru did,” he said.
In his government program, the former president states that it is “better to approach foreign trade in a individual as a country to obtain advantages” in exports.
Rodrigo Paz defends the regional mechanism. “I do not deny relationships with different areas of interest forto Bolivia. For example, in the case of Mercosur, ‘Tuto’ denies this relationship, it will reject it.
In our case, everything linked to a logic of borders in Bolivia is a fundamental issue”, he expressed, also in an interview with CNN.
“We are part of a continent (…) within it, Bolivia has to understand that it needs to generate a relationship with border countries”, he said, stating that Brazil is a “heavyweight” in the neighborhood.
Fuel subsidies
To solve one of the country’s main problems, the lack of gasoline and diesel, which has paralyzed production, reduced the transport of goods and generated kilometer-long queues at gas stations – both candidates propose opening the free import of fuels and reducing subsidies on the input.
Boosting the economy
Quiroga wants to simplify the country’s tax system to attract foreign capital and adopt a governmental attitude “pro-private investment”, releasing exports and imports.
Paz wants to start, with his motto “capitalism for all”, a program of cheap credit, tax reductions and tax forgiveness to stimulate the formal economy.
