The week starts with good and bad news for motorists. According to forecasts released by the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP) for fuel prices, the average price of simple diesel is expected to fall by 1.5 cents per liter, while simple 95 gasoline is expected to remain unchanged.
If the estimates are confirmed, simple diesel will cost 1,527 euros per liter, while simple 95 gasoline will remain at 1,698 euros, according to ACP calculations. The Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) confirms that, currently, the average price is 1,542 euros for diesel and 1,698 euros for gasoline.
The difference is small, but it symbolizes a slight relief for those who depend on their cars daily — especially in a context of fiscal and energy instability that once again generates doubts.
Fiscal measures continue to support lower prices
The ACP’s forecasts are based on the maintenance of the extraordinary tax reduction measures that the Government has applied since 2022 to contain the impact of the rise in fuel prices. These measures include reducing the Tax on Petroleum Products (ISP) and offsetting additional VAT revenue, according to the .
In practice, the State has given up part of the tax revenue on fuels so that consumer prices do not soar, making up the difference through VAT collected when the price of oil rises.
End of ISP discounts could change the scenario
But this policy is overdue. The Minister of Finance, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, recently confirmed that the Government is working on a solution to end ISP discounts, a measure required by the European Commission.
The European recommendation, made since 2023, intends for Portugal to normalize taxation on fuels, considering that prolonged support distorts the market. The challenge now is to find a model that does not cause sudden increases in pumps.
“We will look for moments to reduce prices to be able to reverse these discounts”, guaranteed the minister during the presentation of the State Budget for 2026. The idea is to gradually withdraw fiscal support when the market allows it, avoiding direct shocks to consumers’ pockets.
Impact could be felt later this year
The European Commission had already warned, in letters sent to the Government, that the measure should end by the end of 2025. If the discount is removed at a time when oil prices are rising, final prices could increase between 5 and 10 cents per liter, according to analyst estimates.
For now, the Executive ensures that it will only make changes when international prices are lower, which would allow it to absorb the impact. But this condition is uncertain, and depends on the evolution of global markets.
Oil falling, but tension remains
In international markets, Brent oil, the reference for Europe, closed the week down 1.37%, to 61.06 dollars per barrel, the lowest value since May.
The decline is linked to the worsening of trade tensions between the United States and China, which have affected global growth projections and caused a decline in energy demand. Excess supply has also contributed to the fall in the price of crude oil.
Even so, the trend is viewed with caution: any geopolitical instability or production cuts by exporting countries could quickly reverse the movement.
A short respite for drivers
Despite the small relief planned for diesel, Portuguese drivers continue to be among those who pay the most taxes on fuel in Europe. The ISP represents more than half of the final price per liter, and any tax change has an immediate impact on the pumps.
For now, the ACP forecasts offer a brief respite, but the future will depend less on oil and more on political decisions about the tax that supports the price per liter.
If the ISP discount ends later this year, the next drop could be the last before a new increase.
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