A new phase of the phenomenon has formed in the Pacific Ocean The Girlthe cooler stage of the oceanic ENSO cycle, which has significant impact on weather around the world. According to (CPC), this cold phenomenon will continue during the coming winter. However, current forecasts suggest that as early as 2026 there could be a sharp turn and transition to a strong El Niño.
Experts expect that these changes will affect global air pressure patterns and bring a different character to winter weather in Europe and North America. The cold phase of La Niña is thus fully developed. Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have dropped more than half a degree below the long-term average. “La Niña is officially active and its influence will last until February 2026,” reported by CPC staff.
At the same time, experts from the meteorological portal point out that cold surface waters are supplemented by a thick layer of cold matter extending to a depth of approximately 200 meters. This mass may keep the entire La Niña system active for several more months.
The meteorological models show that La Niña again this year will strengthen typical winter patterns – high pressure over the Pacific Ocean, a shift in the polar flow and colder winters in the northern United States and northern Europe are expected. Conversely, the southern US should experience a drier and warmer winter.
According to ECMWF analyses, Europe can expect unusually fluctuating winter weather s more frequent incursions of cold arctic air. Preliminary simulations also suggest that La Niña increases the likelihood of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW), which may weaken polar vortex – a phenomenon that often brings snow and frost to Central Europe as well.
However, predictions for the second half of 2026 indicate a dramatic change. “Models show rapid transition to warm phase of El Niño as early as spring,” workers (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency) state in their analysis.
The ocean will begin to warm even at greater depths and its circulation will gradually change. The El Niño phenomenon could bring opposite extremes – a warmer and wetter winter in the southern USmore rainfall in South America and an increased risk of drought in Australia and Southeast Asia.
Experts warn against the possible emergence of the so-called „super El Niña“ – an extremely strong warm phase that could significantly affect the weather until 2027. “Our data suggest that the transition from La Niña to El Niño could be the strongest since 1998,” climatologists say. If the predictions are confirmed, the year 2026 could bring not only temperature records, but also significant changes in the global climate system.
