Is it realistic to think of an abrupt end to boom of AI on stock exchanges, warn investors. Fear even increased in the bond market.
Stocks are on the rise. NS&P 500 and Nasdaq have been hitting record highs in recent weeks; This year alone there have been more than 30 maximum values. Between January and June this year, eight stock exchanges in Europe appreciated by more than 20%.
Here, the PSI, the Lisbon stock exchange reference index, grew 17% in the first half of 2025 alone; just last week it reached its highest level since April 2010.
But the investors no longer trust the boom. Almost daily, big managers warn of a bubble. It is realistic to think of a multibillion-dollar bubblel|e-if not .
IA
The bubble would have a central point: Artificial intelligence (IA). Is it realistic to think of an abrupt end to boom of AI on stock exchanges, warn investors.
Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, addressed a possible “industrial bubble” .
All ideas, good or bad, receive funding now – but it won’t always be this way.
Collapse
David Solomon, director of Goldman Sachs, warns of a collapse in financial markets, because huge investments in AI “in the end will not bring a return – and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
Carsten Roemheld, capital markets strategist at Fidelity International, is especially concerned about the rise in stakes among big tech companies: “If Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, that would drive the formation of a bubble.”
“It is natural that the first wave of AI will come to an end”, continues Roemheld. The problem is that the entire stock market depends heavily on movements in AI: “In recent years, the market has practically been driven by a special AI cycle; the concentration of the largest values is very high. The stock market is hanging on by a thread.”
The expert leaves a clear warning: there are large companies in the technology sector that are having predictions “simply unreal” about the returns they expect to have.
Dario Perkins, economist at TS Lombard: “Big technology companies spend $400 billion a year in a race to see who can create a ‘digital god’. And they even say that the return does not interest them”.
What if the bubble really bursts?
It will be 17 times bigger than the technological bubble of 2000 e 4 times bigger than the housing bubble that triggered the financial crisis of 2008. The accounts are by Julien Garran, from the Macro Strategy Partnership.
In fact, in Wall Street corridors they no longer even talk about “if”. Talk about the “when” is that the bubble will emerge (although there are also some optimists about prolonged market growth).
Obligations and private
The fear even increased bond market: corporate bond risk premia are at their lowest levels in decades, fueling fears of “overheating”.
Ray Dalio, an influential investor, has already warned that US debt has become unsustainable and could become a serious problem for investors.
Colm Kelleher (chairman of UBS), Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) and bond expert Jeff Gundlach agree on one thing: A bubble could come in the private credit markets.
In other words, the crisis could affect loans granted outside the banking sector and outside the bond market to institutional investors.
Shock and interconnection
In fact, the famous financial rating agency Fitch indicated, in a recent report, that there is a risk of a systemic shock expose all the growing risks of these private markets, attributing “bubble characteristics” to them.
Possible factors: rapid growth in managed assets, fall in risk premiums and increase in borrower debt, with greater involvement of private investors.
Another cause for concern is the growing interconnection between private credit markets and the technology industry: Meta, Google or Microsoft almost never needed to take on debt – but now, with the AI race, spend huge amounts of money on data centers.
TS Lombard analyst Dario Perkins criticizes: the priority of technology companies is not the return on investment – it is to maintain leadership. “That, in itself, is a warning sign”.
Devaluation trade
All these contexts point to one thing: investors lose confidence in traditional currencies and public finances, thus seeking refuge in investments – gold e cryptocurrencies, at this stage.
Also because of global economic uncertainty, distrust in the traditional financial system is increasing. And, therefore, many large investors are turning to alternative investments.
Investors expect gold and cryptocurrencies to protect them against inflation, debt and political uncertainty. It has a strong speculative nature, but it is the strategy adopted by many investors, and it is generating millions and millions of dollars.