Apple shares hit their first record of 2025 on Monday after Loop Capital raised its rating on the stock from hold to buy, becoming the latest company to cite positive trends in iPhone demand.
Shares rose up to 3.1%, reaching US$260.20, surpassing the all-time high they had reached since December. Apple had been one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index for much of the year, falling as much as 31% in April. Since then, the iPhone maker has risen more than 50%, finally turning positive for the year at the end of September.
The recent strength comes with signs of stronger-than-expected demand for the latest lineup of iPhones, raising hopes that a long-awaited upgrade cycle is underway. Over the weekend, an analysis from Counterpoint Research showed that the iPhone 17 series sold 14% more than the iPhone 16 in the first 10 days of sale in the US and China.
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“We are now at the beginning of Apple’s long-awaited adoption cycle,” Loop analyst Ananda Baruah wrote in his upgrade note. This reflects “a combination of the renewal cycle and demand catalyzed by new design cycles.” He also raised his price target to $315, the market’s highest estimate, implying an upside potential of about 25% from Friday’s close.
Investors expected a similar boost after the launch of the iPhone 16, but were disappointed as much-hyped AI features were delayed or never released.
However, companies other than Loop are more optimistic about Apple’s prospects. Evercore ISI added the stock to its Tactical Outperform list as data on iPhone demand “suggests this could be longer than the average iPhone renewal cycle.”
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes sees Apple “getting its groove back,” highlighting positive trends in China and “momentum in new models in general,” with future products likely to act as additional catalysts.
Still, not everyone is convinced that the iPhone 17’s initial momentum justifies Apple’s valuation. Shares trade at more than 32 times estimated earnings, well above the 22 times average over the past 10 years. Apple also commands a premium to the Nasdaq 100 and is the most expensive stock in the Magnificent Seven group, except for Tesla Inc.
Apple is also less liked than other megacaps. Even with Loop’s upgrade, only 58% of analysts monitored by Bloomberg recommend buying the stock, the lowest proportion among shares in the Magnificent Seven group, excluding Tesla.
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Jefferies analyst Edison Lee, one of four who have a sell-equivalent recommendation for Apple, warned over the weekend that “iPhone 17 sales momentum continues to cool.” Earlier this month, Lee downgraded the stock to underperform, warning that enthusiasm for a potential foldable iPhone is “overdone” as it would likely be priced high and “cannibalize” sales of the Pro Max version.
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