In April of this year, when , elected by Maranhão, announced his departure from the Ministry of Communications, Pedro Lucas Fernandes, also from Maranhão, a deputy from the same party in his second term, claimed that his contribution to the country would be greater in leading the União Brasil bench than as a minister.
This resulted in the hasty conclusion that the Executive no longer had anything to offer to meet the benefits already controlled by the Legislature, and that occupying a seat on the Esplanade of Ministries would be less advantageous than remaining in the Chamber.
This diagnosis of the Executive’s loss of appeal dominated the political debate until last week, when Pedro Lucas’s co-religionist, Celso Sabino (Tourism) and (Sports), his fellow countryman, refused to leave their posts as ministers and resume their positions as deputies, even under threats of losing control of their parties’ state directories.
There is talk of the weight of the president’s vote in Fufuca and Sabino’s home states in 2022, the budgetary control that ministers would have to give up, and the volume of amendments allocated to these portfolios. Considering the 2024 and 2025 budgets and the 2026 budget proposal, the budget under the responsibility of each of the two ministers who are now in government is approximately half of the budget of the Ministry of Communications, rejected in April.
In just six months, something changed. Occupying a position on the Esplanada dos Ministérios guarantees access to other benefits in addition to proximity to the president: resources, distribution of positions and political visibility, for example.
Attributing the change in position exclusively to the president’s popularity is a hasty reading. Assessing the power of the Executive just by the mood of the polls is a mistake.
Even though Lula’s popularity was low in April, minimizing the benefits of being part of the executive was hasty. It is unlikely that deputies willing to support unpopular measures, such as the Blindagem PEC, to give a recent example, are guided only, or above all, by approval ratings in opinion polls.
Furthermore, the first signs of economic recovery were already emerging. The job market was already showing signs of good results, and statistics indicated that the economic recovery was underway. Cover of this Sheet on March 16 it reported that the income of the poorest exceeded food inflation. At the same time, the process of holding the former president accountable for the actions of January 8 was progressing, and he had already been declared ineligible.
Some opinion makers are eager to declare the death of the government system in force in the country and demand its replacement by parliamentarism. Parliamentarism, as if by magic, would correct all the defects of Brazilian politics. May this episode serve to inspire us with caution in the future when interpreting the functioning of the Brazilian political system and the balance of forces between the Powers.
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