Allies of () see President Lula (PT) profiting politically from . They believe that there will be a reduction in part of the commercial taxes imposed on Brazilian products from certain sectors, such as coffee.
Even without achieving an immediate reduction in tariffs, members of the Brazilian government believe that the face-to-face meeting between the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, on Thursday (16), represented the start of a serious negotiation for the
This was the first meeting of the countries’ heads of diplomacy since the presidents and (PT) began contacts last month.
The advancement of conversations tends to have a positive result for the PT government, which is already in a position to produce favorable results in research. The expectation, even in the opposition, is that negotiations will progress until the end of the year.
The scenario increases the pressure from sectors of the business community around the former president and on leaders of centrão and right-wing parties so that the announcement of a possible successor to Bolsonaro can be made this year.
Ineligible, the former president was sentenced by the (Supreme Federal Court) to 27 years and three months in prison for leading the coup plot in 2022. He has also been under house arrest since August 4th.
In the opinion of businesspeople with access to these party leaders, if there is no union on the right around a name that is viable in the polls, it will be difficult to reverse the electorate’s preference for Lula.
For them, the most viable name is that of the governor of , (Republicans), who denies interest in running for Palácio do Planalto.
Bolsonaro’s allies have been seeking in recent weeks to contain pressure from all sides so that he can soon announce a successor. They say that the business community does not understand the timing of the policy and that there is no urgency in the announcement.
Firstly, because this reinforces the clan’s feeling of abandonment and opportunism — and they react in the same proportion on social media.
Secondly, because the former president still has appeals pending in the STF and he will not make any decision until his fate has been confirmed in the Judiciary and in Congress, where his allies are seeking to approve an amnesty.
The bill that could free Bolsonaro and those convicted of the January 8 coup attacks from prison faces resistance among parliamentarians. The greatest probability is that a sentence reduction text will be voted on, with the support of the Congress leadership.
Furthermore, Bolsonaro’s allies say that he is in poor health and has constant bouts of hiccups. Those who obtain authorization from the STF to visit him say that there is no climate to discuss his political future openly, out of respect for the situation. All reports show a dejected former president unhappy with his arrest.
Still, Bolsonaro has been holding conversations about politics, although not at the previous pace. In recent weeks, he received pre-candidates for the Senate, such as Esperidião Amin (PP-SC) and deputy Carol de Toni (PL-SC).
He also spoke briefly with Márcio Bittar (PL-AC) about the election in the state, for which the parliamentarian will try to be re-elected to the Senate. He also heard that Jorge Messias, AGU (Attorney General of the Union) chosen by Lula for the vacancy in the STF, will not have his vote.
The topic of succession to the Presidency itself is seen almost as a taboo in Bolsonarism, and treated with many reservations.
On his last visit to Bolsonaro, Tarcísio discussed candidacy for the state Senate, in a context in which he is a candidate for re-election.
The governor of São Paulo’s discouragement with the undertaking that segments of the business community and the political world would like him to undertake also contaminates Bolsonaro’s interlocutors.
A few months ago, the imaginary deadline for the former president to grant an ally his blessing to run for Palácio do Planalto was December. Now, there is talk of February, March and even April – when the party window and the deadline for non-compatibilization will close.
Among the former president’s allies, there are even those who say that the end of the embargoes and the vote on amnesty (or reduction of sentences) in Congress will not be enough.
For them, the former president will remain a candidate, even if ineligible, until he registers his candidacy with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) in the middle of next year — which will be denied, since he is ineligible.
