Global companies have targeted more than $35 billion in costs from U.S. trade tariffs ahead of the third-quarter earnings announcement season, but many are scaling back their initial forecasts as new trade deals reduce exposure to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump’s trade war has raised U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, and the president has regularly threatened more tariffs, but overall the fog that has paralyzed many companies is clearing, allowing executives to forecast costs and make plans — including some price increases.
Companies expected a combined financial impact of $21.0 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, with a hit of nearly $15 billion calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30.
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The total of more than $35 billion compares to the $34 billion recorded in May, just after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April shook global supply chains.
But the trajectory hides a change: the increase is largely due to Toyota’s estimate of US$9.5 billion. Many other companies lowered their previous worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate trade deals with the European Union and Japan. The figures combine annual and partial estimates from a group of companies that overlap. The groups include around 60 companies.
French spirits makers Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard cut estimates on the impact of tariffs following the EU deal, while Sony lowered its forecast in August. Trump also made exceptions, with only about a third of Brazil’s exports facing a 50% tariff, for example.
“Tariffs are becoming increasingly clear. And we believe tariffs will be just another variable in our business equation that we need to be ready to manage, and we will,” Stellantis Chief Executive Antonio Filosa told Reuters in a mid-October interview, laying out new details of a $13 billion, four-year investment in U.S. manufacturing. In July, Stellantis warned of a €1.5 billion loss from US tariffs this year.
“I think there is a sense that we have reached a kind of landing point with some of the bilateral trade agreements,” said International Chamber of Commerce Deputy Secretary-General Andrew Wilson. “But there will continue to be much greater complexity and enormous uncertainty.”
Earlier this month, Trump floated the idea of additional 100% tariffs on China. On Friday, he said the proposed tariffs would not be sustainable and blamed Beijing for the latest tensions in trade talks between the two countries.
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