Estimate is above the target ceiling of 4.5%; the expectation for GDP growth in 2025 went from 2.16% to 2.17%
The median expectations for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) for 2025 fell from 4.72% to 4.70%, according to what was released this Monday (20.Oct.2025) by the (Central Bank). The current value still exceeds the upper limit of the inflation target, set at 4.50%, by 0.20 percentage points.
The current projection represents a more significant reduction when compared to the scenario 1 month ago, when the median was 4.83%. For 2026, the IPCA expectation also decreased, going from 4.28% to 4.27%.
The market estimate for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in 2025 went from 2.16% to 2.17%. For 2026, the projection remained at 1.80%.
Interest rate
Financial market economists maintained their projection for the basic interest rate in 2025, at 15% per year. For the end of 2026, the projection remained at 12.25% per year.
UNDERSTAND
The BC compiles data from the main financial institutions and economic consultancies that regularly participate in the Focus survey.
The collection and dissemination of information is carried out weekly by the BC, responsible for preparing the Focus bulletin.
The adjustment to expectations is made in the week before the release, with financial market analysts and economists reviewing their projections for future economic indicators.
