With one year left until 2026, the scenario does not have an attempt to align right-wing parties, a repeat of 2022 for the center, and centrist parties seeking to consolidate a basis for the succession of the governor (), who is working on his national projection, but has not yet put the hammer down on his political future.
Leite, who cannot run for re-election, left the party in May, but faces a dispute over space with fellow Paraná native Ratinho Junior and the possibility that the PSD will not launch its own candidate in 2026.
The governor has already indicated more than once that he can put his name in the running.
In the government camp, his vice-president, Gabriel Souza (), is the pre-candidate for succession.
In the PSDB, the names are the former mayor of Pelotas Paula Mascarenhas and the mayor of Guaíba, Marcelo Maranata.
Despite the closeness between Leite and the former party, the alliance is not guaranteed. Local PSDB leaders, such as the municipal president of the party in , Moisés Barboza, reported that members were suffering political harassment to join the PSD.
With the migration, Leite articulated the affiliation of a group of PSDB mayors, which lost command of cities such as Caxias do Sul, Santa Maria and Gravataí — the second, fifth and sixth largest in Rio Grande do Sul.
Milk is one. However, the alliance with the government () should not be mirrored in the dispute in Rio Grande do Sul.
The former president’s party is part of the right-wing bloc opposing Leite and announced the pre-candidacies of federal deputies and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) for the Senate.
An alliance with Novo guaranteed the other vacancy for (Novo), after the former president’s conviction for a coup d’état.
Sanderson’s name may be replaced depending on coordination with other parties on the right. The group should seek rapprochement with , which leads in the number of city halls in Rio Grande do Sul.
PL candidate in 2022, Onyx Lorenzoni, is affiliated with the PP, but the party nominated federal deputy Covatti Júnior as a pre-candidate. The party’s goal is to regain state government after almost 40 years.
In opposition to Leite’s left, the PT must launch again. In 2022, he came close to the second round and, by 2,500 votes, did not take Leite out of the race.
The name of Planalto’s former Communications Secretary, , was considered, but must go to the Senate. Pimenta, who was the federal government representative in RS during the 2024 climate tragedy, sent to rebuild the state.
The second vacancy is open, and there is a movement for former deputy Manuela D’Ávila to enter the dispute. Manuela left PC do B in 2024, after 20 years of activism, and maintains conversations with parties such as PSOL and PSB.
In recent weeks, a name considered out of the running for the Senate returned to the game: Paulo Paim, who had announced his retirement, signaled that he was open to re-election if the party called him.
In search of alliances on the left, the PT maintains dialogue with , which is betting on Juliana Brizola’s name in the government.
The party, also courted by Gabriel Souza, had already signaled rapprochement with Leite’s group after the 2024 elections, when the governor supported Brizola for mayor of Porto Alegre. However, the deputy’s good performance in a Quaest survey released in August strengthened the idea of maintaining her own candidacy.
Juliana appeared in the lead with 21%, followed by Zucco with 20%, Pretto with 11% and Souza with 5%. Another 19% said they were undecided and 20% said they intended to vote blank, cancel their vote or not attend.
