The sweetness of the current moment is as ephemeral as it is longed for. On Monday, it seemed that the entry into force of the ceasefire in Gaza was going to be the definitive lifeline for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuand its unstable extremist Government. In a festival of applause and ovations in the Knessetthe Israeli Parliament, the American president Donald Trump He even dared to suggest to his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog that he grant a pardon for his beloved Bibiwith trials pending for several cases of corruption. This Thursday, the first polls, published by Channel 12, show that if elections were held right now, Netanyahu’s Likud would become the biggest match of the Knesset. But analysts emphasize that this increase in popularity is temporary. Netanyahu’s hands are too dirty.
“For the Israeli people, he is the responsible for [ataque de Hamás del] October 7, 2023, and is the only one who has not assumed responsibility for it,” notes the doctor Gayil Talshirpolitical scientist and expert on Israeli trends and public opinion at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “The chief of the General Staff, the defense minister, and the intelligence chief have all already resigned, only Netanyahu remains in power“, he tells this newspaper. “Evidently he is now receiving a boost in his popularity, but it is not going to make October 7 and his responsibility disappear, nor is it going to change the fact that if he ran for office today, [su coalición] I wouldn’t win; the polarization in Israeli society is too big for that,” he points out.
Binyamin Netanyahu and the Minister of Finance, the settler Bezalel Smotrich, in an archive image. / RONEN ZVULUN / POOL / EFE
That’s how it is. Although he Likud Netanyahu would get 27 seatsthree more than last month, and would become the party with the most support in the Knesset, its coalition would remain nine seats from the majority. It would go from the current 68 seats to just 51. The Channel 12 survey published this Thursday places the former prime minister’s party Naphtali Bennettnamed Bennett 2026, in second place with 22 seatsthree more than in the previous survey. That would mean that the bloc he would lead, united by their common opposition to Netanyahu, would reach 59 seats in the Knesset and would remain at the doors of the majority. Again, as happened in his previous coalition, governability would depend on his alliances with the Arab-Palestinian parties.
Far right
Almost four years of Most far-right government in the history of Israel They have consequences. The match Religious Zionism of the current Minister of Finance, the colonist Bezalel Smotrichwould not pass the electoral threshold and would be left out of the Knesset. Currently, it has 14 seats. Despite their continued opposition to any type of agreement with Hamas throughout the last two years of war in Gaza, the most radical representatives of the current Executive have lowered his speech after the approval of the agreement, and have preferred to emphasize only the part that involves the return of the hostages, a claim widely popular in all sectors of Israeli society. However, the first days of truce indicate that many of their battles seem lost.
The much touted “victoria total” has not been achieved. There are still bodies of hostages in Gaza, Hamas It has not been disarmed and the period for it to do so is indefinite. Rather, on the contrary, since the withdrawal of Israeli troops from half of the enclave has given them back control in those areas. So perhaps Gaza is still a threat for the security of Israel. Furthermore, the path towards the creation of a Palestinian state It now has the clear support of a decisive majority of the international community, to the point that it is mentioned in Trump’s 20-point plan. “Although there was much joy with the return of the hostages, the Israeli public opinion is now worried because of the way Hamas is trying to regain control of Gaza, and the fact that the international force that was supposed to get on the ground to ensure that Hamas does not return is not yet ready to do so,” explains Talshir.
Netanyahu talks in the Knesset with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. / ABIR SULTAN / EFE
“This is the main reason why the extreme right has not retired from the Governmentbecause they knew this was going to happen, and, as Trump has already said that, if Hamas does not hand over its weapons, Israel can go back to warthe far-right have achieved what they wanted,” states the political scientist. Without the resignation of Smotrich and his ally, the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben TrueNetanyahu’s Executive could hold out until the next elections, scheduled for end of 2026. However, with the true end of the war, a scenario could come that the prime minister feared even more, no matter how much he himself promised it. With the hostages back and the cessation of hostilities, Israeli society could increase its demands so that a peace settlement is finally established. committee to investigate security breaches which led to October 7.
Early elections
According to the Channel 12 survey, the 57% of Israelis They defend the need for a state investigation commission, although only the Government can say to create one. Last May, he refused to do so. 27% believe that a government investigation will be enough. Furthermore, 46% of citizens believe that Israel should hold elections as soon as possiblewhile 44% say it is better to wait until October 2026, when the Government’s mandate ends. Until then, the magician Bibi can renew his spell.
But first, he faces great political challenges that could also lead to an advance of the elections: the bill of Ultra-Orthodox recruitmentthe approval of the state budget and its so many times postponed corruption trial. Next Monday, the winter session in the Knesset begins. “It is not going to follow a path of unity, but in reality it is going to return to polarization, which means that it is going to be a very dramatic winter session“, concludes Talshir.
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