Argentina celebrates this Sunday, October 26, some legislative elections which represent the first great test of fire for the histrionic president of the country, Javier Miley. Just in the middle of his mandate, this appointment with the polls could mean a boost or a new setback for the ultra leader, whose coalition suffered a heavy defeat last September in the elections in Buenos Aires, the most populated province in the country. In these elections, 127 of the 257 seats of the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senateand the latest polls point to a very even result between the two main coalitions, Freedom Advancesby Milei, and the Peronist Homeland Forcewhich brings together Kirchnerism.
The average of all the surveys published this year reflects that the Milei coalition has a 5 point advantage on the Peronists in the final stretch of the electoral campaign, but since September the two spaces have maintained great equality and have been exchanging the first position. The centrist brand is much further away United Provincescomposed mainly of provincial governors, and the Left Front.
Furthermore, although Homeland Force is the main brand of Peronism, there are other minority options that also represent this ideological trend and can join forces against the ruling party, so the advantage of Freedom Advances may be less than projected. One of the latest polls released, by Rubikon, projected a slight advantage at the national level of Freedom Advances: 34.6% compared to 32.2% of Homeland Forcea 5.7% of United Provinces4.4% of Left Front and 6.2% from other political spaces.
Milei’s luck depends a lot on how she does in life. province of Buenos Aireswhere more than 40% of the electoral roll is concentrated. According to Projection Consultants, Homeland Force would obtain 42.3%, 11 points more than Freedom Advanceswhose main candidate, José Luis Esperthas been involved in a scandal for his connection with an alleged drug trafficker. Far away is the Left Front (4,1%) y United Provinces (3.7%). In the 2023 presidential elections, Milei won the second round by sweeping Córdobathe third most populated province, with more than 70% of the votes. There, the United Provinces would now obtain 31% of the votes, compared to 21.2% for the ruling party.
Who is who
In this context, a certain pessimism surrounds Freedom Advances. The ruling party has a declared purpose: not to be left at a disadvantage that could open the way to an eventual impeachment of the president. His greatest expectation is that he will have the ability to control the damage in Parliament by exercising the power of veto. Furthermore, Milei’s coalition intends to integrate the traditional right in the Government to block any destabilizing action.
Homeland Forcewhich integrates Kirchnerism in its different variants, wants to consolidate itself as an alternative for the 2027 presidential elections and gain greater space in Congress. United Provinces It is proposed as a centrist path capable of getting out of polarization and also being an alternative to an eventual negative political outcome for Milei. The entrance of Juan Schiarettiformer governor of Córdoba, in the lower house, fuels the rumor that he could become provisional president if the far-right has no political outlet. Left Front Today it has five deputies and hopes to maintain that number in an environment of polarization.
Fall in popularity
Beyond the electoral estimates, the evaluation of Milei as president shows signs of wear. His negative image rose to 63.2% in a survey by the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba carried out between September and October. This survey also revealed that 56.7% of those interviewed believe that Freedom Advances will lose the legislative elections, and that 27.4% believe that the president should resign if he does very poorly in the legislative elections. According to a study by Management & Fit, the acceptance of the anarcho-capitalist is 37.4%, compared to a rejection of 47.9%, a percentage similar to that of the consulting firm Rubikon.
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