Carlo Masala, German military expert and professor of politicshas recently spoken out about the possibility that it may end up carrying out a military incursion into NATO territory.
The specialist, who has published the book If Russia Wins: A Scenario (‘If Russia wins: a scenario’, in Spanish), he believes that Putin is betting that NATO will not be united if the time comes to implement the which states that an armed attack against any of the countries that make up the Atlantic Alliance is considered an attack against all of them, activating the collective defense mechanism.
Taking into account this approach of the Russian president, the military expert predicts that Russia to carry out limited incursion on NATO’s eastern flank within three yearsthat is to say, between now and 2028.
In statements to Carlo Masala has explained that “after writing the book, our former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (Bruno Kahl) said that the German Foreign Intelligence Service has evidence that “There are circles in Moscow that no longer believe in NATO Article 5 and would like to put it to the test.”
“I would agree with this interpretation. They (Moscow) see a Trump Administration who vacillates between taking a tough stance towards Russia or not, but who definitely “is not willing to fight a war for Europe.”the specialist has highlighted.
In that sense, the expert has recalled what happened when Several Russian fighter jets carried out an incursion into Estonian airspace and the country decided to invoke the NATO Article 4which contemplates that the member countries of the Atlantic Alliance will consult whenever any of them considers that their territorial integrity is threatened.
“What I heard about the NATO meeting when Estonia invoked Article 4 was that there was a small group of NATO countries, United States and also Germanywhich were very interested in keeping open the possibility that the three fighter jets entered Estonian airspace by mistake. The rest, let’s say the Eastern European and Baltic countries were very tough with the idea that it was something deliberate,” Masala said.
Therefore, according to the specialist, it is a reality that in NATO “we have that division”a situation that Russia could try to take advantage in a not too distant period.
