When he visited on October 13 to sign the treaty, he spoke of “eternal peace” in the region.
Jay D. Vance in Israel
Less than ten days later, although the US vice president, speaking since yesterday, played down growing concerns about the Gaza ceasefire situation, several US media outlets are reporting that private Trump administration officials fear that the deal could indeed collapse – and that’s why the vice president was rushed there.
“Vance’s presence in the region was intended, at least in part, to ensure that the Israeli prime minister remains committed to that cause,” writes CNN.
Concerns came to a head when a few days ago, after Israel accused Hamas of carrying out an attack that killed two Israeli army (IDF) soldiers, it launched airstrikes that killed dozens of people in Gaza.
Both sides commit to a truce
Some Israeli officials were quick to declare the deal null and void. Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right finance minister, wrote in X a single word: “War!” However, both sides eventually reaffirmed their commitment to the truce.
Violations on both sides
It was certainly not the first time that both sides violated their commitments. Hamas has been slow to return the bodies of hostages who died in captivity, with Israel in response refusing to reopen the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt and allow sufficient humanitarian aid to pass through, while the IDF has repeatedly shot Gazans who crossed the blurred border into Israeli-controlled areas.
The next phase of the truce is difficult
“None of this necessarily means the truce is about to collapse,” notes the New York Times. But the events of the past few days underline “both how urgent it is to move forward with the next phase of the ceasefire negotiations – and how difficult they will be”.
Breach incidents are inevitable
Experts have noted from the outset that breaches seemed almost inevitable. Although the truce calls for Hamas to disarm, negotiators have yet to agree on a practical mechanism by which it could be forced to do so, while the IDF continues to control about 53 percent of Gaza.
However, at this stage both sides have an interest in avoiding a total collapse. Some of Hamas’ commanders no doubt hope to continue sporadic insurgent attacks against Israeli troops, the Washington Post reports. But they don’t want the truce to collapse completely, since without live hostages on its hands, Hamas now has far less leverage to stop a potential new round of fighting — a threat Trump has repeated should Hamas be found guilty.
The attitude of the extreme right
In Israel, on the other hand, far-right ministers have wanted to cancel the agreement since it was signed, with Israel’s Haaretz noting that Netanyahu is deliberately refusing to say the war is over for good.
«visiting»
For this reason, Jay D. Vance’s visit there yesterday, two days after the arrival in the region of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the son-in-law of the US president Jared Kushner – the two “architects” of the agreement as it is considered – is said to be part of what the Americans call “Bibisitting” (in reference to his nickname Netanyahu, Bibi).
It is not Netanyahu who makes the decisions
“They want to show him that even if the prime minister wants to restart the war, he is not the one making the decisions,” writes CNN. Witkoff stressed, among other things, that the next 30 days are critical to honoring the agreement and entering the second phase of the talks.
The NYT, citing U.S. officials, points out that the general belief on the U.S. side is that the truce is more under threat in the short term, which is why the vice president’s trip had to come so soon after Trump’s visit just last week — though Vance said the trip had “nothing to do with the events of the last 48 hours.”
The truce is uncertain
However, the long-term future of the ceasefire remains uncertain. Trump’s plan calls for a multinational peacekeeping force to take over the security of Gaza, and while some countries have expressed interest in participating, none have yet made a firm commitment.
Several diplomats in the region say the potential escalation of violence in Rafah is fueling fears among Arab leaders and beyond, who worry about a political backlash at home if their troops end up firing on Palestinians.
“Everything is uncertain”
Even if some states reach an agreement, analysts warn that it will likely take several months for the force to be deployed. “Until then everything is uncertain – let alone an eternal peace” comments the British Economist.
