When the price of oil rises suddenly, the effect is felt everywhere: at fuel pumps, electricity bills, transport costs and even the prices of essential goods. The new US sanctions package against Russian oil promises to shake up world markets and, inevitably, the pockets of Europeans.
On Wednesday, October 22, 2025, Washington announced sanctions against two of Russia’s largest oil companies: Rosneft and Lukoil. The decision is part of a broader strategy to pressure Moscow by restricting its energy financing.
The reaction was immediate, according to the international news agency Reuters. The following day, the price of oil rose by around 5%, both in Brent (European reference) and WTI (American reference).
Stock markets reacted cautiously, and interest rates on public debt rose, a sign of greater nervousness among investors.
A decision with global reach
The new sanctions limit financial and commercial transactions with the two Russian oil companies and impose a transition deadline of November 21 for the conclusion of contracts already in progress. This short window is creating uncertainty among importers, who are looking for alternative sources of supply.
In the physical market, crude purchase premiums increased significantly. Countries in the Middle East and Africa became the main beneficiaries, as they saw demand shift towards their exports.
Reaction from large consumers
Asia, where some of the biggest buyers of Russian oil are concentrated, began to quickly adjust its imports. China and India, until now among the main destinations for Russian crude, are reevaluating contracts and looking for alternative suppliers, to avoid secondary penalties imposed by the United States, according to the same source.
Indian refiners, such as Reliance, are already reducing purchases from Russia and increasing imports from Persian Gulf countries, in a move that could change the world energy map.
Europe on alert
In Europe, the rise in oil prices boosted the shares of major oil companies, but brought apprehension among consumers and companies. London’s FTSE 100 index rose after the announcement of the sanctions, reflecting the positive impact on the revenues of companies in the energy sector.
However, the other side of the coin is worrying: the increase in energy costs puts pressure on inflation and could delay a possible cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank.
Impact for Portugal
In Portugal, the price of fuel is closely linked to the value of Brent. A 5% increase in international markets is usually reflected at the pumps a few days later. This means more expensive diesel and gasoline, which could affect transport, agriculture and the general cost of goods and services, according to the previously cited source.
Furthermore, the increase in oil prices tends to increase production and transportation costs, with a domino effect throughout the economy. For Portuguese families, the most immediate consequence is the pressure on the monthly budget, especially at the start of winter.
A challenge for economic stability
The big unknown now is whether other producing countries will be able to compensate for the drop in Russian supply. If the substitution is partial, the market will remain under pressure, keeping prices high for longer.
European companies with strong energy dependence, such as those in the chemical and transport sectors, could face a significant increase in costs, according to . Ultimately, this could hamper economic growth and hamper the post-inflationary recovery.
What to expect in the coming weeks
Everything will depend on the effectiveness of sanctions on Russian oil and the market’s ability to adapt. If global supply adjusts quickly, pressure on prices could ease. Otherwise, inflation will once again become a central theme in Europe, and in particular in Portugal.
The transition deadline, which ends on November 21st, will be the first big test. Until then, investors and governments will be attentive to market developments and the response of the world’s main producers.
Summarizing all the information, sanctions on Russian oil are reshaping the global energy balance. For Europe, and especially for Portugal, the essential question is not just how much fuel will cost, but to what extent the increase in the price of crude oil could delay economic recovery and increase the cost of living in the coming months.
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