Russian forces are still advancing on several stretches of the long front line in Ukraine – despite yet another call from US President Donald Trump to freeze fighting in those regions.
Both sides,” Trump said on social media last week after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, D.C.
But the Russians seem determined to do so before winter sets in.
A week ago, last Friday (17), Moscow used a record 268 guided aerial bombs, according to the Ukrainian army, compared with an average of 170 to 180 per day in recent weeks.
These bombs, which carry a payload of up to 1,500 kg, are primarily targeting forces and those close to the front lines.
The Russians also continued to launch nightly drone and missile bombings of targets across Ukraine, especially energy infrastructure.
In September, an average of more than 180 drones were launched every night, more than double the number recorded at the beginning of the year.
In recent days, Ukrainians have acknowledged that around 20% to 30% of these drones are not being intercepted.
Advancement in Russian occupation and weapons
In the last week, it has used more than 3,270 attack drones, 1,370 guided aerial bombs and almost 50 missiles of various types against Ukraine, Zelensky said on Sunday (19).
For some analysts, the Kremlin has no incentive to make concessions as its forces improve their battlefield performance.
“Moscow has developed new ways to use drones to locate and kill soldiers and destroy Ukrainian assets, transforming what was once an area of weakness into an area of strength,” says Dara Massicot, a longtime analyst on Russian affairs at Foreign Affairs.
“It’s built better missiles and created more robust and capable armored systems. It’s giving junior commanders more freedom to plan,” adds Massicot.
One city where Ukrainians are under increasing pressure is Kupiansk, in the northern Kharkiv region. Russian troops have advanced north and east of the city, which has been occupied for more than a year.
A well-known Russian content producer, War Gonzo, said on Saturday (18) on Telegram that there was also fighting in the center of Kupiansk.
acknowledged the Ukrainian military, and its defenders were “doing everything possible to rid Kupiansk of the Russian invaders and prevent the build-up of enemy infantry in the city.”
A Ukrainian military blogger – Bohdan Miroshnikov – said this week that the Russian tactic “could lead to takeover (if reinforcements arrive and consolidate their positions)”. He added that, although the situation is very complicated, “full occupation of the city is still a long way off.”
Also in the Kharkiv region, closer to the international border, the Russians claimed advances near the city of Vovchansk, including the capture of a nearby village.
In Donetsk, heavy fighting continues around Pokrovsk, with a Russian military blogger claiming on Saturday that Russian troops are advancing to the northwestern outskirts of the city.
For its part, the Ukrainian army claimed to have recovered around 180 square kilometers of territory in the Pokrovsk area over the past two months in a series of counterattacks.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukrainian forces, insisted that the Russians did not have “the strategic initiative. At the cost of enormous losses, the adversary achieved only small advances in certain sectors of the front.”
“Ukrainian warriors stopped the enemy’s spring-summer offensive campaign,” Syrskyi added.
Loss of soldiers in the troops
Russia has gained about 300 square kilometers of territory in the past four weeks, about half of what it gained in the previous month, according to Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
And Russian advances come at a high cost. About 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with more than 950,000 casualties in total, according to a June estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank.
Nearly 14,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the Pokrovsk area alone since the end of August, according to Ukraine’s military command. THE CNN cannot check battlefield numbers.
Faced with these losses, the Russian Defense Ministry appears to be changing the way it recruits additional personnel.
In recent weeks, Russian regions have begun reducing generous signing bonuses used to attract recruits.
The Kremlin has traditionally relied on financial incentives to attract volunteers and avoid another mobilization, but the practice “is likely generating diminishing returns, which may force the Kremlin to adopt an alternative approach,” according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.
“Russia may begin mobilizing members of the Russian active reserve on an ongoing basis to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine,” according to ISW.
For its part, Ukraine is betting on long-range attacks against Russian energy infrastructure to persuade the Kremlin to accept negotiations.
The country has stepped up production of its own cruise missiles, although it has not yet been able to persuade Trump to supply Tomahawk missiles.
Since the beginning of the year, successful attacks have been carried out against 45 facilities in Russia’s fuel and energy sector, according to Syrskyi. Industry analysts estimate that a fifth of Russia’s refining capacity has been disrupted.
But despite the casualties and damage to the Russian economy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of agreeing to a deal or negotiations with Ukraine.
More than 1,300 days after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, as one expert put it, “Ukraine cannot destroy Russia’s war capacity, while Russia appears incapable of defeating Ukraine militarily.”
