During this winter, we will probably see a slightly different course in Europe than in recent years. The reason is the development of the so-called polar vortex, which is a large circulation of cold air high above the Arctic, writes the portal.
Normally, it keeps the coldest air locked at the pole. However, this year it has started to show signs of weakening very early and this suggests that cold arctic air can move south more easily.
For Europe, this means a higher chance of more intense cooling during the winter. It does not automatically mean an extreme or record winter, but there may be more days with snow or significant frost compared to the milder winters of recent years. The weather could also be more changeable, because the weakened polar vortex allows greater changes in air flow.
Similar scenarios are emerging for the United States, though there, a stronger impact is expected, especially in the east of the country, where cold currents may appear earlier. Canada could experience different conditions by region, so the cold will not be the same everywhere.
The forecast is also strengthened by a rare combination of other global factors, namely a weakening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, which is historically strongly correlated with polar vortex collapses, and also a descending phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere, which weakens the vortex. These factors, along with the record low extent of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, create a “perfect interplay” of conditions that dramatically increases the likelihood that the winter of 2025/2026 will be severe.
However, it should be remembered that these are assumptions and not a sure prediction. The development of winter depends on many factors that can still change. If the polar vortex strengthens later, the cooling may not be so significant. For now, meteorologists only speak of an increased probability and recommend monitoring further developments during the fall.
