An unusual phenomenon takes place in the stratosphere above the North Pole – an early disruption of the polar vortex that may affect the weather in both North America and Europe in the coming weeks. Meteorologists warn that this development can have a significant impact on the course of the winter 2025/2026, writes the website.
According to current analyses, the polar vortex is unusually weak in October. In the stratosphere, an area of high pressure forms over the Pacific, which pushes it from the center over the North Atlantic and limits its strengthening. This “shift” causes the vortex to become more unstable, allowing cold air to penetrate southward.
Simulations show that we will see more significant temperature fluctuations in the coming weeks – especially in the eastern part of the USA, in Canada and gradually also in Europe. It could happen in our region be manifested by increased weather variability and possible intrusions of cold air in the second half of autumn.
Long-term models, including analyzes by NASA and ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), suggest that the weakening of the polar vortex may continue even during November, which could mean that this winter could bring more frequent intrusions of arctic air and snowfall in lower altitudes as well.
However, meteorologists warn that the development is still uncertain and will depend on whether the polar vortex can stabilize in November. If its current weakness in the vortex deepens, it could be a harbinger of a significant winter with snow and frost – especially in the second half of the winter season.
The polar vortex is an extensive cold air circulation system that forms in winter over the Arctic and extends from the lower layers of the atmosphere (troposphere) to the stratosphere. It’s about a key element that shapes winter weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere. When the vortex is strong and concentrated, the cold Arctic air remains trapped in the polar region.
However, if it weakens or breaks, the cold air can easily “spill” southward – to the United States, Canada or Europe. The result is significant cooling, snowfall and changes in air circulation.
