A long-term plan for Brazil prepared by the Lulatraz government as principles for the a, with balanced public accounts, identified as one of the Achilles’ heels of the PT administration.
Prepared by the minister’s portfolio (Planning and Budget), the Brazil 2050 Strategy cites other points of uncertainty that could lead to a “postponed future” scenario, such as the discontinuity of structuring public policies.
The strategy, which will be established by decree with no date yet to be announced, is undergoing final adjustments. The idea is that the outlined scenarios, which cover the period from 2026 to 2050, can serve as a basis for decisions by public and private managers.
There will be monitoring of the plan, which will cover long-term national objectives, national key indicators and targets, in a regulation that will be edited by the Executive Secretariat of the Brazil 2050 Strategy.
The “postponed future” includes and increasing , restricting investment capacity. It is a contrast with the other two scenarios designed by the ministry: “the country we can be”, in which public accounts are balanced and the debt is controlled, and “progressing little by little”, which brings slow stabilization of public debt.
The worst-case scenario envisages low and unstable growth in the country and stronger political and commercial tensions — which would be a perpetuation of the country’s current polarized context and retaliation from countries like the USA.
Another risk highlighted is the country opting for reforms that are limited to tackling emergency issues, without resolving central problems. In the most optimistic scenario, the country would be able to escape this trap by carrying out systematic reviews of tax and financial incentive mechanisms.
There are also warnings about the discontinuity of public policies, with the risk of prioritizing “short-term projects, with an emergency and compensatory nature”. In the “country we can be”, this scenario is reversed with the broad implementation of medium and long-term projects, with inclusive social policies and structuring investments.
Social Security appears as a potential negative focus, if there is a significant increase in the retirement and pension deficit. In the optimistic scenario, the pension system will adapt to aging with stabilization of the deficit.
The report highlights that neither scenario will occur in its “pure” form.
“Reality is always much more complex than it is possible to portray it in a set of logically linked variables”, he indicates. “In the future, the real trajectory will walk between the scenarios, mixing hypotheses that may come closer to one of them with others outlined in a different scenario.”
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