President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears in the lead in all four scenarios of the 1st round of the 2026 presidential elections, according to research released this Monday (27) by the Paraná Pesquisas institute.
The survey tested Lula against different names from the right-wing camp, including former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).
Also participating in the projections were the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), the former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PSDB), the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), and the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil).
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In the most competitive scenario, Lula has 37% of voting intentions and Bolsonaro 31%, with a difference of 6 percentage points. The former president, however, .
When the name tested is Flávio Bolsonaro, the distance increases: Lula has 37.6%, and the senator has 19.2%.
2nd round scenarios
In the second round simulations, Lula appears technically tied with his main opponents. Against Jair Bolsonaro, the PT member scores 44.9% and the former president 41.6%. The same result is repeated in the confrontation with Michelle Bolsonaro, who also scores 41.6%.
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In a dispute with Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula appears with 44.9% and the São Paulo governor with 40.9%. The biggest gap occurs in front of Flávio Bolsonaro, who has 37%, compared to 46.7% for the current president.
Bolsonaro out of contention
If Jair Bolsonaro remains prevented from running, governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro are the names with the greatest potential to inherit his electorate.
According to the survey, 23.3% of voters would vote for Tarcísio, and 21.3% for Michelle. Another 22.4% said they would not choose any of the options. Ratinho Junior (PSD), Ronaldo Caiado (União), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) were also tested.
The survey was carried out between October 21 and 24, 2025, with 2,020 respondents in 26 states and the Federal District, covering 162 municipalities. The confidence interval is 95% and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
