It is “one of the most intense hurricanes on record” – winds will exceed 280 km/h
The , which will hit Jamaica and then Cuba, is described by climatologist Mário Marques to CNN Portugal as “one of the most intense hurricanes on record, possibly in the top 10 in historical terms”. It has maintained category 5 for more than 48 hours and should continue at this level for another 24 hours.
According to the expert, what makes Melissa particularly dangerous is not just its strength but “its extremely slow progression”. Mário Marques explains that, “when a hurricane is more intense, its progression is much slower” and this slowness will cause the system to remain much longer over the same territory, causing intense rains, destructive winds, prolonged flooding and consequently greater destruction.
The “eye of the hurricane will pass right over the center of Jamaica” and, in addition to winds exceeding 280 km/h, Melissa is causing a rise in sea level “of almost three meters, not counting waves of eight to nine meters”. This combination causes the so-called “sea overtopping”, responsible for vast floods in coastal areas. “It is an extremely dangerous situation”, highlights Mário Marques.
The climatologist is concerned about the fact that the authorities have not been able to convince people to leave their homes and warns that “this increases vulnerability and the impact on the population”. Mário Marques emphasizes that people “should go to the shelters indicated by the government, leave the coastal areas as quickly as possible and look for higher places and structures more resistant to the wind”, where there is what is essential to withstand the four critical hours of the hurricane’s passage.
Melissa’s intensity “is as if a dozen Hiroshima atomic bombs were released in a cadence of seconds”. The increase in seawater temperature causes the system to encounter “a lot of associated energy and a lot of water vapor supply”, which makes these phenomena more intense.
The system was born from “a tropical wave coming from central Africa” which, upon reaching abnormally warm waters, around 32 degrees in the southern Caribbean, accumulated a lot of energy and water vapor – which created the perfect environment for its exponential growth. Mário Marques explains that the extreme heat of the ocean serves as fuel for these storms and that hurricanes function as “escape valves” to release accumulated energy.
Mário Marques remembers Hurricane Katrina, from 2005, as the most similar to Melissa and states that “Katrina was very intense, also category 5, and the waters of the Gulf at that time had a very positive anomaly, close to 31 degrees”. The expert also recalls that some islands, such as Puerto Rico and the island of São Martinho, “were devastated by category 4 and 5 hurricanes and have not yet fully recovered”.
Between Jamaica and Cuba, the hurricane will remain in category four at that time and only when it crosses Cuba will it weaken to category three or two, so “it will still affect Cuba with a significant impact”.
In Portugal, although the country is not on the route of these systems, Mário Marques warns that “the coast is the most vulnerable area” and that we are “little prepared, not only in terms of forecasting and monitoring, but above all in prevention”.
