The Spanish stock market is on its way to being crowned one of the world’s best performing stock markets this year and at the same time getting even for digesting the excesses of the real estate bubble that devastated Spain almost two decades ago. The Ibex, which at the start of the week achieved , revalidated its intraday record this Tuesday. The index started the day with increases of 0.3%, which allowed it to exceed the 16,040 points it reached on November 9, 2007.
The Ibex thus enters levels unknown to the Spanish stock market but more than well known to other markets such as the United States, where the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq chain record after record in recent months. So much so that on the New York Stock Exchange it is common to find operators wearing caps with the new levels reached.
So far this year, the national index has accumulated a rise of 38%, the largest of the main world stock markets, thanks to the , true champion of its highs. Its rise is well above the 16.6% rise in the Euro Stoxx 50 and the S&P 500, while the Dow Jones limits the rise to 11.5% annually. To find greater profits you have to travel more than 10,300 kilometers in a straight line to Busan, the city that hosts the headquarters of the South Korean stock market, where the Kospi advances, counted in euros, more than 68.5% in the year. In the opposite direction it would be necessary to travel 8,000 kilometers to reach Bogotá, where the Colombian Stock Exchange is located: the MSCI Colcap index gains 41.3%.
Despite the push from the bank, the biggest increases within the Spanish selective so far in 2025 are for Indra. Technology soars 190% in the year thanks to the pull of European defense. The strong security investment plans announced by Brussels and countries like Germany have attracted huge sums of liquidity to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specialized in the sector and driven gains close to 200% in securities such as Rheinmetall or Renk.
Solaria follows very far behind, which advances close to 93% thanks to the recovery of renewable energy firms, especially those focused on data centers and battery storage. Following it are Santander, Unicaja and BBVA, with profits ranging between 82% and 90%.
Keys of the day
- The Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, Scott Bessent, has assured that negotiations with China have made it possible to close a “framework agreement” to avoid the imposition of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese products. This principle of agreement must now be ratified next Thursday, when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet directly.
- A crisis has also been staged, since, after tariffs were raised to 50% in August, it was announced yesterday that they will work immediately to reach agreements that reduce these rates.
- Likewise, the governments of the United States and Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia have signed a series of bilateral agreements that include tariff trade pacts that provide for 19% tariffs for products from these Asian countries and almost total exemption for American export products.
- Beyond the trade negotiations, which seem to be on the right track, the week is marked by the Fed meeting on Wednesday. With a rate cut already in the cards, markets will be watching for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to taper its quantitative tightening program. Attention will also focus on whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell offers clarity on further rate cuts, as the US government shutdown continues, leaving policymakers without economic data.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) also decides on interest rates on Thursday. In this case, it is expected that official rates will be maintained.
- This week, several of the big technology companies, such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft, will publish their quarterly results, at a time when doubts are once again arising about an AI bubble.
What do the analysts say?
Chinese officials have so far been cautious about trade talks with their American counterparts and have said little about the possible outcome. In this regard, Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, believes that there may not be a “perfect resolution” or even a “resolution”. He even believes that negotiations on some issues could be postponed until later. “When two economic superpowers with tenacious leaders try to reach an agreement, it is to be expected that it will not be a simple matter,” he says. However, Menon adds that if both leaders make some concrete progress, it could be enough to satisfy the markets for now, as investors look for a silver lining to sustain the uptrend.
Bankinter analysts indicate that “on Thursday, if nothing changes at the last moment, the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping will depend on whether the commercial belligerence increases or decreases… which is impossible to anticipate with sufficiently acceptable reliability considering the character of at least one of the two interlocutors. Despite this, we risk in favor of a non-destructive outcome because it would not harm any of the parts. That would be enough for both of them, who would try to extend the current ambiguous situation for longer. And that wouldn’t hurt.”
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and raw materials?
He rises slightly to $1.1660.
Gold, considered a safe haven, remains around $4,000 per ounce, after a 9% drop in five sessions. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics group, predicts that “the price will fall to $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2026.”
In commodity markets, oil prices are lower following a Reuters report that eight OPEC+ countries are leaning toward a further moderate increase in oil production by December when they meet on Sunday, as Saudi Arabia tries to regain market share. It falls 0.25%, to $64.75 per barrel.
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