The right is silent in the face of positive reaction from Lula and Trump and shows misalignment

The silence of governors and the restrained reactions of other opposition figures to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s meeting with American Donald Trump highlight the unfavorable moment on the right after a series of setbacks in recent months. In addition to the lack of comments from relevant names in the political field, allies of former president Jair Bolsonaro adopted a disjointed speech to face the repercussions of the bilateral meeting on the networks.

After a positive start to the year, fueled by the PT’s drop in the polls in the so-called “Pix crisis”, the Bolsonarists were faced with serial defeats in the second half of the year. When congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), who moved to the USA, articulated the tariffs and sanctions against Brazil, the right-wing governors who are emerging as possible presidential candidates shaped the speech to associate Trump’s movement with Lula’s stance, which would be “anti-American”.

The argument was that the country was not seeking proper dialogue with the greatest power in the world, which became difficult to sustain after the weekend meeting — which even brought a “happy birthday” from the republican to the Brazilian and praise for his “vigor.” After the meeting and the photo in which the two presidents appear smiling side by side, Tarcísio de Freitas (SP), Romeu Zema (MG), Ratinho Júnior (PR) and Ronaldo Caiado (GO) did not speak. Another silence felt was that of deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), Bolsonaro’s main digital communicator, who said nothing.

Viral image

Mapping by Quaest using the QuaestScan tool, developed by the institute to monitor images and audio on the internet, gives the dimension of the political weight of Lula’s image with Trump. The photo received 72 million views and 22 million likes, joining profiles on networks such as Instagram, X, TikTok and Facebook. Until then, the photo of the PT member with the highest number of views was one next to Janja, in August 2021, which had 65 million.

“The photo published and widely viewed is a clear example of politics as an image, which even without caption talks about what happened. The smile, the posture, the handshake, everything is symbolic”, assesses the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes.

Even the Bolsonaro family was more restrained in its reaction. Some allies of the former president focused on boasting about the fact that Trump said, when asked by the press, that he “always liked” Bolsonaro and that he “felt bad” about what happened to him.

“Lula meets Trump and on the table a subject that clearly bothers the ex-convict: Bolsonaro. Imagine what was discussed behind closed doors?”, published Eduardo Bolsonaro, indicating that the American may have spoken about his father with Lula — there is no evidence that the topic was discussed.

Another argument from the clan, expressed by senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), was that Lula left the meeting empty-handed, without a solid agreement. The meeting, however, served as a kickoff for negotiations. Planalto and Itamaraty did not expect to return from Malaysia with the announcement of the repeal of tariffs or sanctions against authorities.

The Bolsonaro family’s own encouragement of Trump’s intervention in Brazil had already been a shot in the foot of the right, as several surveys have shown. Brazilians’ view of the United States as a nation collapsed, with the unfavorable perception (48%) surpassing the favorable (44%) in August’s Genial/Quaest. Previously, the level of those who gave a positive opinion about the country was close to 60%.

When the institute asked who was acting most correctly in relation to tariffs, 49% responded that they were Lula and the PT, compared to just 27% who cited Bolsonaro and his allies. Rejection of tariffs exceeded 70%.

To make the unfavorable situation worse, another gesture classified internally as a “gift” for Lula was the United States flag stretched across Avenida Paulista, on the September 7th holiday, during a Bolsonarist demonstration. Broadcast on Brazil’s Independence Day, the image served as ammunition for PT supporters to once again evoke the discourse of sovereignty, as a counterpoint to the “surrenderism” of the other side.

Bolsonarism, however, still felt supported, ultimately, by Trump’s support. But even that began to collapse when, after the meeting that lasted 39 seconds at the UN headquarters, the president of the largest economy in the world declared that he had “unexpected chemistry” with Lula. Between this episode and Sunday’s meeting in Asia, there was also a telephone call between the two presidents, in which they laid out the basis for the face-to-face conversation — and did not talk about Bolsonaro.

In another area, the right was associated with the Blindagem PEC, rejected by 63% in the Genial/Quaest survey in October, and the unpopular amnesty agenda, also repelled by the majority, which made the left take to the streets to protest at the end of September. Public opinion polls show that the demonstrations were interpreted as a political victory for the government.

Unprecedented wear

Researcher at Cebrap and author of the book “Less Marx, more Mises: Liberalism and the new right in Brazil”, political scientist Camila Rocha assesses that Bolsonarism is experiencing a crisis of unprecedented proportions since the emergence of the phenomenon, around ten years ago.

“It is undoubtedly the worst moment since it emerged in 2014, 2015. It is a period of crisis for Bolsonarism. This does not mean that the political movement is dead, but it is the worst moment”, he states.

In addition to the tariffs, unpopular agendas and Bolsonaro’s condemnation, the researcher points out that the Lula government’s change in stance, which entered a more propositional phase, put the opposition on the ropes.

“Like, for example, when it raises the issue of taxation of billionaires, of bets, the end of the 6×1 scale, and the Bolsonarist opposition does not support any of these issues, which are very popular. This also does not help Bolsonaroism in the slightest to regain a greater space in this narrative dispute”, he analyzes

All of this occurs while Bolsonarism, hostage to the former president’s decision-making, has not yet defined a name to compete against Lula in 2026. It is based on this that some opposition architects have claimed that, when there is a consolidated candidate, the game will be more balanced. This is what senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI) said this Monday, online, who shared data from a survey that would show the president’s “low ceiling”. “Lula flies, but it’s a twin engine. All it takes is an opposition jet to look at him from above,” wrote Bolsonaro’s former minister.