Choosing a fighter to defend a country is no longer only done in times of peace. Ukraine, under Russian fire, opted for the Swedish Gripen, a plane designed to survive the chaos and operate from a simple highway. This pragmatic decision now forces Portugal to question its own certainties about replacing the F-16s
They land and take off from highways, have one of the most advanced radars in the world and were designed precisely to combat an adversary like Russia. These characteristics were important to “seduce” the Ukrainian government, which signed a letter of intent with Sweden to acquire up to 150 JAS Gripen E fighters, the latest and most powerful version of Saab’s combat aircraft. But the reasons that led the Ukrainians to choose this aircraft go beyond that and send a strong message to countries like Portugal, which continue to move forward with choosing a plane to replace the aging fleet of F-16 fighters.
“The versatility of these aircraft is very useful for Ukraine. The Gripen is a very robust aircraft with simple maintenance and associated operation. For a country at war like Ukraine, where we see Russia bombing any point on its territory, this dispersion capacity is fundamental”, explains Lieutenant General Rafael Martins, former commander of the Air Force, to CNN Portugal.
For decades, Sweden, a neutral country on the border with the Soviet Union, developed its Armed Forces thinking about a single scenario: an invasion by a numerically superior enemy, with radars, satellites and missiles capable of destroying its airports and military airfields in the first hours of the conflict. The Swedish response was to create a fighter capable of operating from any side at any time. A plane that could be rearmed and refueled on a highway by a small team of soldiers, and return to combat in minutes. The Gripen was made for asymmetric warfare against a much larger enemy. This is precisely the situation in which Kiev finds itself.
The Gripen E that Ukraine intends to buy has little to do with the first version of the aircraft launched in the late 1980s. This top-of-the-range variant, which only this month reached the hands of Swedish air force pilots, introduces a new technological level to the aircraft. Although it is not a “stealth” plane with a focus on electronic warfare, its new system creates a “360-degree electronic bubble” around the aircraft, allowing it to detect, jam and deceive enemy radars.
At the same time, Saab equips these aircraft with advanced AESA radars, which guarantee the pilot top-notch “situational awareness”, capable of detecting enemy aircraft at long distances and tracking several targets simultaneously, whether on land, in the air or at sea. With 10 attachment points on the wings, it can carry a wide range of weaponry, from the fearsome Meteor missile, capable of hitting aerial targets 200 kilometers away, to precision-guided bombs and anti-ship missiles.
“This translates into a major evolution of air power for Ukraine, which now has a combat aircraft that not only carries out attacks, but also adds air defense capabilities. Furthermore, it is a predominantly European aircraft, only the engine is made in the United States”, explains Lieutenant General Rafael Martins.
Portugal at a crossroads
The Ukrainian choice of a European aircraft is not innocent. At a time when its air force already operates a diverse fleet that includes American F-16s and French Mirage-2000s, the focus on Gripen sends a clear geopolitical message. Kiev wants to join the NATO standard, but without being held hostage by possible geopolitical changes by the American administration, which in the past did not hesitate to stop the delivery of weapons or information of a military nature, so as not to harm the diplomatic effort with Moscow.
This dependence is also questioned in Lisbon, where the decision to replace the F-16 fleet hangs over the Government, which is overseeing the biggest increase in the Defense budget in recent decades. The Portuguese Air Force (FAP) has already studied the possibilities and chosen the 5th generation F-35 stealth fighter, produced by the Americans at Lockheed Martin. This plane is technically more advanced than the Gripen and is the one that was chosen by a large part of the air forces of European allies. But after successive threats from Donald Trump to NATO allies, Nuno Melo admits that “the world has changed” and now it is necessary to “think about the best options”, including options “of European production”.
CNN Portugal questioned the Ministry of Defense about the state of the decision-making process and whether the F-35, chosen by the FAP, continues to be the only option on the table, but did not receive any response.
The choice of a new plane for the air force is not binary and Portugal could, in theory, choose to have a mixed fleet. Canada, which initially ordered 88 F-35s to modernize its fleet, is thinking about reducing the number of aircraft purchased, after the North American president suggested annexing the country. Prime Minister Mark Carney is now considering the possibility of having a mixed fleet, with half made up of American fifth-generation aircraft and the other half made up of Gripens. So far, no major decisions have been made.
The reality is that this business goes far beyond defense policy. The business involves many billions of euros and manufacturers and governments know this. Therefore, they hurried to sign memorandums of understanding with the Portuguese aeronautical industry in order to entice the executive with qualified jobs and salaries well above the national average. The Americans signed an agreement with the AED Cluster, a group of companies in the Portuguese defense and aerospace industry, to involve the Portuguese business community in the manufacturing and maintenance process of the F-35. But it all depends on the purchase of the planes.
The Swedish Saab team signed two memorandums of understanding with national companies, OGMA and Critical Software, to support the increase in demand for Gripen around the world. To journalists, Daniel Boestad, vice-president of the Gripen business, explains that this agreement is not dependent on the choice of the Portuguese Government. Questioned by CNN Portugal, Saab confirmed that there has been no contact between the company and the Portuguese executive since the signing of these agreements.
Minister Nuno Melo publicly defended the need for greater integration between defense policy and the economy. An example of this integration happened with Saab in Brazil, where the Swedish company opened a complete production line and a technological development center, where Swedish and Brazilian engineers work not only on production, but also on creating new technologies for the fighter. Today Brazil is not seen just as a customer, but as a fundamental part of the Gripen global production chain. In such a way that Brazilian factories may have to be expanded to cope with the increase in production necessary after the huge Ukrainian order.
A quantum leap
But for experts with many flying hours in combat aircraft like Lieutenant General Rafael Martins, the F-35’s technical capabilities are a “quantum leap” for the air force that is difficult to ignore. The American plane, famous for its stealth, is synonymous with technological supremacy. “Almost invisible to radar”, it is capable of hitting the enemy without them ever seeing it. But what really sets it apart is the software that makes it a true flying command and information collection center that merges data from different sensors, giving its pilots a huge advantage.
“The helmet of an F-35 pilot alone costs around 400 thousand euros. Why? Because they allow the pilot, if he looks down, not to see the floor of the cockpit, but rather the terrain beneath the plane. To operate a 5th generation fleet, a whole culture and infrastructure is needed to accompany the process. It’s almost a metamorphosis, a quantum leap for the air force that will operate it”, he explains Rafael Martins, adding that the “technological gap” between the F-35 and the Gripen is large.
Furthermore, interoperability with other NATO allies is an important factor. The vast majority of countries that operate the F-16 are transitioning to the F-35, which would facilitate the Portuguese transition. But technological superiority comes at a high cost. Not only is the price per aircraft higher, but each hour of flight and all spare parts represent a financial burden of another order of magnitude, which can be too heavy for a country with a limited budget like Portugal.
The final choice goes beyond a list of technical specifications or cost analysis for each project and ends up being exclusively political, with the Executive having to choose which arguments have the most “weight” and the vision they have for the country. “The fundamental point is this: what is our strategic intention? Where do we want our main compatibility to lie? In the alliance with the United States or in strengthening the European Union?”, says Diana Soller, specialist in International Relations.
Portugal finds itself at a crossroads. Choosing a solution like Gripen, which is the most economical, promises an industrial return and reinforces Europe’s strategic autonomy, may be a viable choice, but it requires political “courage”. Especially because the decision to put aside the purchase of a technologically superior F-35 could have “political consequences” on the Portuguese relationship with Washington, with a possible “distancing or cooling of relations”.
“I think there are a series of good arguments in favor of the Gripen. Now, let’s see if Portugal has the political will and, above all, the political courage to make that choice”, concludes Diana Soller.
