Confidence index drops to 89.8 points and the sector maintains a negative trend; high stocks worry businesspeople
Brazilian industry confidence recorded a drop for the 7th month in 2025, as determined by the FGV Ibre Industry Survey (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation), released this Wednesday (29.Oct.2025). Here is it (PDF – 418 kB).
The ICI (Industry Confidence Index) dropped 0.7 points in October, reaching 89.8 points – the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. The data reflects widespread pessimism and a scenario of slowdown in industrial activity.
According to an analysis by FGV Ibre, the decline in the indicator reinforces the adverse situation experienced by the sector in the 2nd semester. The main factor of concern is the high level of inventories, which remains above desired levels in most segments.
“Despite a reduction in uncertainty and a heated job market, the industry remains far from a recovery in demand”said Stéfano Pacini, economist at FGV Ibre.
The worsening was observed both in assessments of the current situation and in expectations. The ISA (Current Situation Index) fell 0.8 points, to 94.2, and the IE (Expectations Index) fell 0.7 points, reaching 85.4 – the lowest level since June 2020. Among the 19 segments surveyed, 7 showed a decline in confidence.
In the breakdown of indicators, the current business situation was the component with the greatest negative influence, falling 2 points. The inventory indicator reached 106.4 points, which suggests an excess of ready-made products, the highest level since November 2023. The level of installed capacity utilization fell 0.7 percentage points, at 81.9%.
Pessimism crosses all industrial categories, with emphasis on producers of durable goods, most affected by restrictive monetary policy. Predicted production and optimism indicators for the next 6 months also declined, while employment expectations remained stable.
The survey data, collected between October 1st and 24th, points to an industrial sector that remains cautious, given a complex macroeconomic scenario, and without relevant signs of demand reactivation in the final stretch of 2025.
