“The smallest of the big EU countries”. This particular phrase accompanied for decades, in the attempt to convey the contrast between the small size of the country and its economic and diplomatic prestige.
In the run-up to the October 29 elections, the same country is experiencing an unprecedented fragmentation, which makes the formation of a government a real puzzle. At the same time, once again, the wider Far Right emerges as a big winner.
Polydissociation
A few hours before the polls open, the opinion polls reach the same conclusion: the Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders, the man who has continued to play the leading role in the political life of the Netherlands for twenty consecutive years, although he has not held a government position and possesses the originality of being the only member of his party, remains the favorite for first place.
One of Islam’s fiercest critics, a supporter of his country’s exit from the European Union and a staunch opponent of aid to war-torn Ukraine, the 62-year-old politician claims he wants to reduce the number of asylum seekers to zero.
After all, it was he who was responsible for the collapse of the outgoing coalition government, from which he left demanding stricter immigration deportation policies and military surveillance of the borders. Moreover, from this government (which had 11 months of existence), only Wilders’ party benefits. The remaining three factions that participated in it are expected to suffer losses, with the once ruling center-right People’s Party for Democracy and Freedom (VVD) recording the smallest ones, while the New Social Contract and the Farmers’ Movement are fighting for parliamentary survival.
It is precisely this sense of fluidity that rewards the rise of parties and formations, which on the one hand keep their distance from the Far Right and on the other hand have strong governmental experience. This is how – at least in part – the high registration of the Christian Democratic Party (CDA), the liberal D66 and the centre-left alliance between the Green Left and Labor Party (GroenLinks-PvdA) is interpreted. Although the three formations are competing for second place, at the same time, they are the only ones that, if they combine their forces, can form a government that excludes the forces of the Far Right.
A crucial role on the day after the election will be played by who will be the first among equals of the opposition. Should the centre-left alliance prevail, claiming the leadership of the executive, it will be more difficult to engage more conservative parties with significant parliamentary representation, such as the VVD, which view the possibility of a left-wing government negatively. Conversely, if one of the other two opposition parties has the lead, it facilitates such a prospect.
Introversion agenda
Beyond the post-election alliances and parliamentary calculations, it is worth emphasizing two particularities, which characterize these elections in the Netherlands, explaining also the constant fascination still exerted primarily by Wilders’ party and secondarily by other smaller formations of the same political family, such as JU21 or the Forum for Democracy (FvD).
OR first it concerns the introversion of the political debate, as it unfolded during the pre-election period. Issues such as housing, public health and immigration monopolized the public debate, with the war in Ukraine or the geopolitical ramifications of the takeover of Chinese Nexperia by the Dutch state leaving the country’s citizens seemingly coldly indifferent.
“For an economy so heavily dependent on global trade, it’s striking that any talk of foreign policy has been exhausted on defense spending,” notes Katia Bego, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank, pointing out that the possibility of forming a more European-friendly government will restore the country’s profile as a country with a strong footprint in NATO and the EU. It is this tendency to return to domestic affairs that creates opportunities for political action. the parties to choose thematics according to their position on the political spectrum (Left and Center focus on the social agenda, Right and Far-Right on the immigration issue).
As for her second particularity, this concerns the consolidation of the far-right discourse and its normalization. “The logic of the health zone is not applied the same to everyone,” political scientist and political science professor at the University of Georgia, Cass Munde, points out, noting that right-wing parties have adopted the Far Right’s immigration agenda, with the center and center-left opposition parties following the same tactic, albeit in a milder form. It is no coincidence that in this climate an image of a trisection of the political system is formed, with the Far Right, the Right and the broader Left forming competing and large poles, prescribing an image already familiar in countries like France or Italy.
