The Netherlands is holding national elections this Wednesday without a clear majority in sight and in one of the most fragmented political landscapes in decades. The campaign, dominated by the housing crisis, the debate about it and the discourse of the radical right, anticipates tough negotiations to form a government and a new period of instability.
Some 13.4 million Dutch people are called to the polls to elect the new composition of Parliament, of 150 deputies, almost two years after the elections that gave victory to the extreme right of .
His (PVV) then became the most voted force, but without a majority to govern alone, which led him to form a cabinet with three other right-wing parties. That coalition took eight months to close and barely lasted eleven before breaking up.
Today’s elections are anticipated after the failure of that government experiment led by the non-politically affiliated official Dick Schoof, who after the departure of Wilders due to internal disagreements over the asylum policy.
It is the third time in less than five years that the Dutch have elected a new Parliament. The two cabinets prior to Schoof’s, both led by the liberal, also resigned before exhausting their mandate: the first in 2021, due to a Tax Agency scandal, and the second in 2023, due to internal divisions around asylum.
The polls and the big issues
Wilders, the only official member of the PVV, arrives again as a favorite, although with a slight loss of support: he would obtain about 31 seats compared to the current 37, according to the latest polls. “That party is nothing more than a man with a Twitter account,” said liberal VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz.
Some 27 parties compete for the 150 seats in Parliament, where 15 parties are currently represented. Four or five parties have options to be in the lead: in addition to the PVV, the progressive bloc of environmentalists and social democrats (GroenLinks-PvdA), the Christian Democrats CDA, the progressive liberal D66 and the liberal conservative VVD, which governed for more than a decade under Rutte but does not expect good results.
The electoral campaign has revolved around three major citizen concerns: the shortage of affordable housing, the tightening of immigration policy and the loss of purchasing power.
The increase in rental prices and the lack of new constructions have made access to housing the main topic of debate, while migratory pressure and asylum requests divide the parties between those who call for drastic restrictions and those who defend a more humanitarian policy.
Added to this is the impact of the rising cost of living, with inflation reaching 3.3% year-on-year in September, which has raised demands for fiscal and salary measures to relieve the middle and lower classes.
During the campaign, mainly focused on debates and interviews in the Dutch media, the leaders have attacked each other: the VVD and the PVV warned of the “danger” of the left of (GL-PvdA); this one, of Wilders’ extremism; and D66 and CDA appealed to recover the “political center.”
The leader of the CDA, Henri Bontenbal, assured that he is prepared to lead the next cabinet and defended that “it is time for a new breath and a prime minister from the center.” However, he stated on the public radio station NOS Radio 1 that he does not aspire to another ministerial position and that, if not prime minister, he would prefer to lead his parliamentary group.
Rob Jetten (D66) has been the most visible candidate in the media. He accused Wilders of having put Dutch identity “under pressure”: “The Netherlands was a proud country thanks to tolerance and progress, and he destroyed that with twenty years of negativity and hate politics,” he lamented. Wilders replied that it was “a perfectly rehearsed story.”
In the penultimate debate, held on Monday, Wilders was booed by those present after proposing to reduce VAT to 0% and finance it by eliminating development cooperation: “They may be a little hungrier in Africa, but not here,” he said, provoking whistles. The far-right leader quickly left the venue, while his rivals described the meeting as “chaotic” and “full of accusations”, according to the euroskeptic Joost Eerdmans (JA21).
The debates had been cordial until last Thursday, when the reinstatement of Wilders, who had suspended his campaign for security reasons, altered the tone of the contenders.
Added to the fragmentation and distrust of the political class in these elections is indecision: a large number of voters have not yet decided on their choice. Tonight will be the last televised debate, the final attempt to attract skeptics before the end of the campaign.
