Support a far right who sees the country “on the verge of bursting” due to immigration or trust the Government in those who seek solutions to the shortage of dwelling o to climate crisis: this is the political scenario of the 13.4 million voters in the Netherlands called to the polls this Wednesday to elect their new Parliament. They are early elections, after the collapse of the coalition dominated by the far-right of Geert Wilders. Everything indicates that the next Executive will not be led by whoever wins the most votes, but rather whoever achieves second position.
The polls predict a victory in votes for the Trumpist and Islamophobe Wilders and his PVVa formation deeply rooted among the ultra-Dutch and European family. It would be his second consecutive victory after having achieved the position of most voted force in November 2023 for the first time in its history. But it seems ruled out that he will obtain the necessary partners to govern. He will hardly be able to convince other right-wing forces, after having pulverized the government that the PVV commanded for 11 months.
The beneficiary of this situation will perhaps be whoever comes second. A position that in the final stretch is in dispute between the Christian Democrats of CDA and the bloc of Social Democrats and Greens of veteran Frans TimmermansGroenLinks-PvdA. Another formation of the progressive center, Democrats 66, could tip the balance, while the liberals of the VVD, the party that led in the past Mark Rutteis weakened after having sustained the now failed coalition.
Wilders’ PVV has remained in first position throughout the campaign, but its advantage has been decreasing towards the end. It is estimated to have a range of between 29 and 31 deputies, compared to the 37 it achieved in 2023. The CDA and Timmermans’ progressivism are predicted to have between 22 and 26 seats. The fragmented Parliament in The Hague is made up of 150 deputies, now distributed among 15 formations. There are many political constellations in play. There is a new ‘star’ among right-wing radicalism, JA21, fighting for its political space.
It has been a relatively calm campaign, without large rallies, but mobilizations illustrative of the degree of citizen division: More than 250,000 people took to the streets in Amsterdam in solidarity with Palestine –option representing Timmermans–; another demonstration against asylumand therefore favorable to Wilders, turned the usually quiet capital, The Hague, upside down. There were threats described as real by the police against Wilders, who canceled a debate but then resumed his campaign. There was also a threat of intimidation in a television interview against Timmermans, without consequences.
The challenge of right-wing radicalism
It seems contradictory that someone like Wilders, who in his 20 years in Parliament has destroyed two coalitions of which he was a part, could win first place again. First it was in his time as an ally of one of Rutte’s governments, in 2012. Last June he amplified his challenge by forcing the withdrawal of his five ministers in a government whose head had been placed by the technocrat. Dick Schoofsince his allies had vetoed Wilders’ presence in the Executive. But in the global orbit of antipolitics, these types of scenarios proliferate.
Wilders dedicated the 11 months of the coalition’s life to getting in the way from within and demonstrating that his anti-immigration voracity is insatiable. The Schoof Government started with a program that immigration policy intensifiedalready lasting since Rutte’s last days in power. Not even that satisfied the insatiable leader of the PVV, who demanded more and more measures recognizable as not applicable by his partners.
Schoof continues as acting prime minister at the head of an Executive with only two partners, the liberals and the BBB peasant party, which have a total of twenty seats. It is not clear how long it will have to continue in these conditions, in a country accustomed to transitions hindered by political weakness.
Netherlands, founding partner of the EU and member of NATOwill continue to be under the influence of the PVV, a major player in Dutch politics even if it remains in the opposition. Wilders is part of Hungarian ultranationalist Viktor Orbán’s Patriots for Europe. It is a group accustomed to capitalizing on any electoral success as a shared milestone. They celebrate it, even if they fail to form a government, as happened to the Austrian Herbert Kickl, in the opposition after having won first place in the Alpine country’s elections in September last year.
Timmermans or the new centrism
The options for a turn in the face of Wilders’ anti-politics are between the veteran Timmermans, 64 years old and former vice president of the European Commission, or Henri Bontenbal, a 43-year-old politician who has recruited the vote lost by the liberals since Rutte left Dutch politics to become secretary general of NATO.
Timmermans is the great hope for the family of European socialists and social democrats. At the Dutch level, it has integrated the Greens into its bloc, supported by the work it carried out from Brussels in the fight against climate change. Added to this commitment are his promises to mobilize funds for housing construction. As in the rest of Europe, the shortage of apartments at affordable prices It is the main headache. Bontenbal’s right questions the viability of the plans of Dutch progressivism.
Timmermans’ big problem is that he is ruled out by certain central parties, who consider him too leftist. To Bontenbal’s right, his spectacular increase in voting intentions stands out. They are the third parliamentary elections in five yearsin a country that has already tried many alliances, including the experiment with Wilders holding the reins of a government of which he was not part.
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