US President Donald Trump’s attempts to financially stifle Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine have had an immediate impact on offices in India and China.
Some oil companies have started canceling orders to meet the November 21 deadline following sanctions imposed on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, according to industry sources.
So far, the world’s two most populous nations, India and China, have largely resisted the American leader’s calls to stop buying Russian oil — and his threats about what might happen if they didn’t.
But early signs of compliance with Trump’s “tremendous” sanctions may be just a waiting game, analysts say, as interveners discover new ways to deliver and acquire cheap Russian black gold through a sophisticated sanctions circumvention system that involves middlemen and a “ghost fleet” of oil tankers with opaque ownership.
The impact of Trump’s sanctions on Russia may ultimately be decided in Asia.
Between them, India and China import between 3.5 and 4.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, a significant portion of which comes from the recently sanctioned companies, analysts say.
Richard Jones, crude oil analyst at Energy Aspects, said 1.4 million to 2.6 million barrels a day for India and China could run out when the November deadline comes to an end.
For India, sanctions represent a familiar and complicated dilemma, pitting its ongoing need for cheap energy and its tradition of friendship with Moscow against its deep and growing strategic ties with Washington. New Delhi also holds out hope for a rapprochement with Trump after he imposed 50% tariffs on the country’s exports to the US, but its purchases of Russian oil have been a point of contention.
For China, which has been an important economic lifeline for Russia since the start of the war, the calculation will be to protect its big oil companies while balancing what it sees as a fundamental geopolitical partnership with Russia and the interest in ensuring that the war does not put an end to Putin’s regime.
“Self-sanction”
When Western nations banned the shipping of Russian crude oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin was able to turn East, finding an economic lifeline in China and India, which absorbed millions of barrels a day at a deep discount. A win-win scenario, but at the expense of Ukraine, in the eyes of the West.
Both Asian countries have consistently defended these purchases, framing them as part of their national interests to ensure energy security. But in the short time since the Trump administration announced its sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, there have been signs that those sanctions are already starting to have an effect.
Sanctions “will inevitably bring costs to the Russian economy,” said Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“The Kremlin will be watching to see who absorbs the share of Russian crude that India will give up by pulling away, and for now, China may not have the motivation to expand its imports.”
In China, Russia’s most loyal economic partner, several state-owned oil companies have canceled some purchases of Russian crude oil, according to Janiv Shah, vice president of Petroleum Markets and Downstream Analysis at Rystad Energy.
The hesitation is reflected in India, where the country’s largest private refiner, Reliance, told CNN that it would “adapt refinery operations to meet compliance requirements” and that it was “fully committed” to “respecting applicable sanctions.”
Reliance imported just over 181 million barrels of Russian oil between January and September this year, according to data from oil intelligence firm Kpler.
People walk past an oil refinery operated by Bharat Petroleum in Mumbai, India, on April 4, 2023. (Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
On Monday, India’s largest state-owned oil company, Indian Oil Corporation, said it will comply with all applicable sanctions, according to the Press Trust of India.
“For now, most Indian buyers and Chinese state-owned companies will effectively self-sanction themselves for a cycle or two until they understand US law enforcement intentions,” said Richard Jones, a crude oil analyst.
But that may only be “until alternative solutions are found,” Jones said.
“India is in a more difficult situation,” according to Clayton Seigle, president of energy and geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, because the Chinese market is more opaque and its companies are less afraid of being blacklisted by Washington.
“In short, (India) has become addicted to discounted Russian barrels. Returning to its pre-war crude oil supply mix would mean more barrels from the Gulf of the Middle East, West Africa and even the US — at a significantly higher cost,” he said.
Failure to comply could pose a major financial risk to Chinese and Indian companies, as the threatened secondary sanctions could potentially harm their ability to borrow from US banks if they continue to buy directly from Russia.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar appeared to criticize Trump’s sanctions on Monday, calling energy trade “increasingly restricted.”
Without naming the US, he said that “principles are applied selectively and what is preached is not necessarily practiced.”
Geopolitical maneuvers
For Beijing, the issue goes beyond energy security and represents a critical test of its “boundless” strategic partnership with Moscow and their common goal of countering US global influence.
“Given US pressure, China will not completely ignore US demands, but neither will it deliver everything the US wants,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank. “The bottom line is that China will not abandon Russia.”
There is also the possibility that Moscow and Beijing have already started “private conversations” about “possible solutions or countermeasures”, according to William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group.
“I don’t see a scenario in which China simply decides to divest from Russian energy sources, because that would cause a profound shock to China’s own economy and industries,” he said.
Since the start of the war, major Chinese companies and banks have largely sought to follow US sanctions to avoid being targeted by secondary sanctions in their international business.
Even if China’s large state-owned companies may pull back, analysts suggest that smaller independent refiners, known as “teapots,” may continue to buy Russian oil through third parties, although their ability to absorb additional quantities will be limited in the short term. It is unclear what share these refineries have in China’s total Russian oil trade, analysts say.
Trucks gather at the oil and gas depot park of Longkou port area in Yantai city, Shandong province, China, June 17, 2025. (CFOTO/Future Publishing/Getty Images)
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Thursday that the country had “consistently opposed unilateral sanctions.”
New Delhi has not yet spoken publicly, but the sanctions create a direct conflict between two of India’s main national interests.
India’s economic growth and energy security have become dependent on discounted Russian oil from a partner with which it shares a historic friendship. But its growing strategic partnership with the US, which has deepened through the Quad security grouping, is equally vital to countering the growing influence of its rival China in the Indian Ocean.
This geopolitical calculation is complicated by immediate economic incentives. New Delhi is currently negotiating a trade deal with Washington that would provide its export industries with much-needed relief after the Trump administration’s previous tariffs put millions of jobs at risk.
However, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi due to host Putin in New Delhi later this year, any change is likely to be a “temporary tactical recalibration rather than a complete strategic withdrawal.”
Ghost fleet
Behind all these geopolitical maneuvers is Russia’s “ghost fleet” — a strategic asset designed specifically to transport its crude oil outside of Western oversight.
The scale of this network has expanded rapidly in recent years. in May it identified 940 unique ships involved in this fleet, a 45% increase over the previous year.
The European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States have implemented heavy-handed measures to thwart the network, collectively blacklisting hundreds of ships.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has managed to maintain its crude oil exports despite the “logistical challenges” posed by sanctions.
The tanker Eagle S, which damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea last month, off the coast of Porvoo, Finland, on January 8, 2025. Finnish authorities deemed the tanker, which is part of the fleet carrying Russian oil, unseaworthy following onboard inspections. (Roni Rekomaa/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
And this is a reality that highlights the challenges of cutting Russia’s oil revenues.
Aamer, an expert at the Asia Society, said that “demonstrating a tangible reduction in oil trade with Moscow, even if gradual, could help seal the deal and become an important gesture of goodwill.”
Following previous US sanctions on Russian oil majors Gazprom and Surgutneftegas, Indian refiners simply adapted by purchasing oil through a complex network of “third parties or intermediaries”, said Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler.
The same process, involving layered transactions to hide the origin of a cargo, could also be applied to Russian oil exports to India and China after the latest sanctions, according to Xu.
“It’s just a name change and redirection,” Xu said. “We hope similar things happen.”
Most of this sanctioned oil would end up in the “opaque Chinese market and/or be ‘laundered’ by traders’ tricks,” said Seigle, an expert in strategic studies.
These workarounds would still affect Moscow’s revenue because it costs more to hide in the shadows.
“The biggest X-factor is not what the oil traders will do, but what Washington will do regarding law enforcement,” Seigle said.
CNN has reached out to Indian state-owned companies Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, as well as Indo-Russian oil refiner Nayara Energy, for comment.
CNN also reached out to major Chinese state-owned companies, including PetroChina, CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil, for comment.
