The parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, precipitated by the collapse of the coalition dominated by Trumpist Geert Wilders, mark the probable return to the path of a constructive and moderate progressivism of this founding partner of the EU and NATO ally. The vote count, with 98.4% counted, places the PVV de Wilders and Rob Jetten’s Democrats 66 tied in percentages and seats –16.7% and 26 seats for each–. They are identical figures, but for Wilders they reflect the failure of his political project, after the milestone marked in the November 2023 elections by obtaining 23% and 37 deputies. On the other hand, Jetten is propelled towards the position of prime minister: he shot up 10 points above what he obtained two years ago and won 17 more deputies. Are results against the forecastafter months with Wilders clearly leading the polls. It demonstrates once again the Dutch vote volatility. The rise of Jetten’s liberal progressivism was accompanied by a spectacular growth of the CDA Christian Democrats and the resilience of the liberals. On the other hand, the leftist and green bloc of veteran Frans Timmermans was sunk in fourth place.
These are the keys of the turnaround in the Netherlands and what can happen from now on:
According to analysis by the Ipsos institute, Jetten’s D66 promotion was due to its ability to recruit votes in the rest of the partiesfrom the other representatives of progressivism that is the Timmermans alliance to the center or even the extreme right of Wilders. Jetten, 38 years old and Minister of the Environment in Mark Rutte’s last stage as Prime Minister, has rescued his party from near irrelevance to achieve its best historical result. He is identified with regeneration, dynamism and the constructive spirit. Also with a pragmatism that applies both to the search for proposals against the shortage of affordable housing, and to an immigration policy that in the Netherlands long ago left behind the line of generous reception. In private, it also represents the open society model defended by the Dutch: he openly lives his homosexualitywhich places him at the opposite pole of the homophobia of Wilders and other European Trumpism.
The 26 seats achieved by Jetten are far below the 76 he needs to have a stable majority in a Parliament with 150 seats. His natural or even “logical” ally, in his own words, is the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance by Timmermans. But the 20 deputies achieved by this bloc are not enough. He will seek support among the Christian Democrats of CDAwith 18 positions, and the 22 coming from the liberals of the VVDthe party that Rutte led before becoming NATO secretary general. But the current leader of the liberals, Dylan Greenrejected in the campaign a possible alliance that includes Timmermans. There are 15 parties with seats in the new Parliament and many possible constellations in a country used to experimenting with alliances that seemed impossible. The Dutch are not afraid of long transitions with minority governments in office, like the one kept alive by the outgoing prime minister, Dick Schoof. It took Rutte 299 days to tie his last executive, while eight months passed between Wilders’ victory in 2023 and the formation of his alliance with three partners.
Geert Wilders, with a long career as a leading figure in Dutch politics, was betrayed by his histrionic character and their desire for dominance. He had reluctantly resigned himself to not having positions in the Schoof Government, due to the imperative of his centrist partners. But he plunged the coalition into chaos with unattainable demands in immigration matters. He proved to be a leader of an insatiable far-right who, if he comes to power, behaves like an uncontrollable actor. The final tie with Jetten leaves him hurt, although it would be premature to call it a day. The next risk of PVV is the appearance of other two strong forces in the ultra spectrum, JA21 and FvDboth in the group of parties that increased seats and percentages.
The European social democrats and socialists will not be able to claim victory through Timmermanns, who aspired to recover for his political family the power lost in The Hague more than 20 years ago. But a return of the Netherlands to the terrain of moderation and the center through Jetten’s liberal progressivism will smooth out rough edges in the increasingly tense political panorama of the community bloc.
D66 is a match committed to supporting Ukraineas Jetten himself was responsible for transmitting on the same election night, when he catapulted himself as the moral winner of the elections. “kyiv must continue to count on European support,” he said. Wilders, like other Trumpists, even proposed to dismantle aid to Ukraine, although while the PVV was part of the coalition he relativized his rejection of support for kyiv forced by his partners.
The group of Patriots for Europecommanded by the Hungarian ultranationalist Viktor Orbán and with the French Marine Le Pen and the Spanish Santiago Abascal among its ranks, was confident that its affiliate Wilders would clearly defend its position as the first force. The tie formally saves them the ballot. But the disaster expressed in the sharp drop in percentage and seats is difficult to conceal, even for the ultra-helpful automatism of resorting to victimhood as a force “under harassment.” Orbán displays as his own any triumph of his political family, such as that achieved by tycoon Andrej Babis in the recent Czech elections. The Hungarian leader, worshiper of Donald Trump and friend of Vladimir Putinneeds to strengthen itself before its own electoral campaign. In April 2026 he will fight for reelection with the polls going uphill. Babis will probably present his coalition pact with two Eurosceptic and anti-establishment allies next week. Wilders, on the other hand, is ruled out as a partner, which de facto reactivates a kind of cordon sanitaire which seemed suppressed in the Netherlands.
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