Experts warn of a reduction in investments and hiring; Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points
The United States government shutdown prevented the release scheduled for Thursday (October 30, 2025) of the country’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The completed 30 days, with Republicans and Democrats still in an impasse that delays the .
Economists consulted by and expect GDP growth of 2.8% from July to September. If the estimate is confirmed, it will represent a slowdown compared to the 2nd quarter. The information is from .
The indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — a continuous estimate of real GDP growth based on available data — indicates growth of 3.9%.
the term shutdown refers to the partial shutdown of government activities due to lack of resources, affecting everything from the functioning of federal agencies to the payment of employees considered “non-essential”.
The mechanism’s origins lie in the Anti-Deficiency Law of 1884, which prohibits federal agencies from spending more than authorized without Congressional approval. Annually, congressmen must approve 12 appropriations laws that finance public spending. If there is no consensus, sectors without approved funds come to a standstill.
IMPACT OF R$14 BILLION
The estimate that the shutdown could cost the US economy up to US$14 billion.
Experts warn that companies may reduce hiring and investments with this scenario. “This is the time of year when most organizations are finalizing their budgets for 2026. So virtually every company is thinking: Do we think 2026 will be a year of growth? Or a slowdown, or a recession?”said, , chief economist of , to AFP.
Long also stated that sectors of the economy are also trying to assess whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, a decision that depends on inflation and the job market, which has shown signs of weakening.
The world’s largest economy has already postponed the release of reports on employment, trade, retail sales and other indicators, recalling only a few furloughed employees to produce essential inflation data needed by the government to calculate payments. of Social Security.
If the government shutdown lasts until mid-November, as markets project, most of the data that has been delayed will probably not be published until December, according to Goldman Sachs.
FED RELEASES INTEREST RATE
On Wednesday (Oct 29), the (Federal Reserve, the central bank of the USA) cut the rates for the 2nd consecutive meeting, even with the shutdown. Reduced the rate range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It is the lowest since November 2022. Read (PDF – 169 kB, in English).
In the statement, the Fed states that “In support of its objectives and in light of the changing balance of risks, the committee decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 of a percentage point.”. The score was 10 votes in favor and 2 against for the change. The decision followed market expectations. Analysts interviewed expected a 0.25 pp cut
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