São Paulo (Reuters) – Brazil’s soybean harvest could increase 61.5% compared to last season’s levels, to around 275 million tons, considering the possibility of cultivation advancing on pastures with the potential to be converted into crops, projected a study by Itaú BBA’s Consultancy Agro in advance to Reuters.
The work does not indicate a deadline for the scenarios of additional expansion of soybeans in pastures, but remembers that this process has been happening in recent years.
The consultancy team estimates an additional soybean production potential of almost 105 million tons compared to the record of around 170 million tons that the largest global producer and exporter produced in the last cycle.
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The additional gain would be double Argentina’s current harvest, stated the report, referring to the volume produced in the world’s third largest oilseed producer, behind Brazil and the USA.
“Brazil has one of the largest pasture areas in the world, which represents an opportunity for more efficient use of land through agriculture”, pointed out the study, signed by analysts Gustavo Troyano, Bruno Tomazetto and Ryu Matsuyama.
The estimate assumes expansion in pasture areas in which Embrapa sees more favorable agronomic characteristics for conversion.
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“The conversion of pastures into crops is one of the main structural drivers of agricultural expansion in Brazil,” said the bank.
The use of pastures still has the potential to avoid new deforestation in the expansion of planted areas.
Embrapa estimates that approximately 28 million hectares of pastures, around 17% of the country’s total pasture area, have the potential to be converted into crops.
In a hypothetical scenario, the incorporation of these 28 million hectares into soybean production would represent an increase of 59% in relation to the current 47.5 million hectares.
The Central-West region is the one that contributes most to the potential for converting pastures into crops, due to its extensive area of existing pastures, which has “the greatest potential for this transformation”, highlighted the study, also citing the States of Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia).
Considering that corn in the country is mostly grown in the second harvest, after the soybean harvest, the Itaú BBA Agro Consultancy team estimates a potential increase of 58% in production compared to the last season to around 144 million tons.
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The bank estimated that the area planted in the second harvest could grow by 10.2 million hectares, in the wake of the advance of soybeans.
