The majority of economists’ projection is that the basic rate, the Selic, will be maintained at 15% per year
The commercial dollar closed at R$5.399 this Tuesday (4.Nov.2025), up 0.77%. Investors await the decision of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) on Wednesday (5.nov).
The North American currency varied from R$5.379 at its minimum and R$5.402 at its maximum.
The majority projection is for the basic rate, Selic, to be maintained at 15% per year, but some financial agents expect a less harsh statement from the monetary authority, which would signal a horizon for a fall in interest rates.
This Tuesday (4.Nov.2025), the Minister of Finance, said that inflation in Brazil will remain within the target range in 2025. He stated that, if he were director of the Central Bank, he would cut the Selic rate. He also declared that the monetary authority would like to keep interest rates high.
The Focus Bulletin on Monday (3.Nov.2025) that estimates for 2025 inflation fell from 4.56% to 4.55%. It is close to the ceiling of the target established by the CMN (National Monetary Council). The target center is 3.0%, but the tolerance range goes up to 4.5%.
For 2026, financial agents estimate an IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) rate of 4.20%.
Investors also reacted to data on industrial production in Brazil. The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) reported this Tuesday (4.Nov.2025) that the sector fell 0.4% in September compared to August, in the seasonally adjusted series.
André Valério, senior economist at , said that the sector will not have a large contribution to GDP in the 3rd quarter. The industry rose just 0.09%. Even so, an increase of 2.0% in Brazilian economic growth is expected for the year to date.
Leonardo Costa, economist at , stated that the IBGE data confirms the sector’s stagnation at the margin.
STOCK EXCHANGE
The index renewed the nominal record, but the highest level considering the correction for inflation was recorded on May 20, 2008, when it reached 194,034 points in real terms and 73,516 points in nominal terms. The survey was carried out by Einar Rivero, from the consultancy Elos Ayta
On the international stage, the United States government shutdown prevents the publication of economic indicators (Gross Domestic Product). THE shutdown It will be the longest in history if it is not closed by Wednesday (5.Nov.2025).
