California voters go to the polls this Tuesday, 4th, in a referendum that will impact the battle for control of the United States House of Representatives next year. If Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposal is approved, the state’s electoral district map should change, in a move that should favor the Democratic Party and reduce the number of Republican congressmen.
The result should change the prospects of Democrats in next year’s midterm elections amid the so-called “battle of the maps”, initiated by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to win more seats in Congress before next year’s election.
Republicans currently control both legislative houses, but if Democrats gain a majority in the Chamber of Deputies next year, Trump’s agenda could be stopped by the opposition.
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“God help us if we lose California,” said Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The referendum was planned as an attempt to counter the Republican Party’s move to redistrict in states in which they have a majority. Texas, Missouri and North Carolina have already presented new Republican-friendly maps for next year’s elections.
California, a heavily Democratic state that elects 52 representatives to the Washington House of Representatives, represents by far the best opportunity for Democrats to fight these measures. The party holds 43 of the 52 seats and hopes to increase that number to 48.
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Referendum
California Proposition 50 asks voters to suspend House maps drawn by an independent commission and replace them with redrawn districts adopted by the Democratic-controlled Legislature. These new districts would be in effect for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections.
The redrawn districts aim to dilute the power of Republican voters by uniting rural, conservative-leaning parts of far Northern California with Marin County, a coastal, progressive stronghold near San Francisco.
The move was led by Newsom, who threw the weight of his political operation behind the referendum as a major test of his ability to galvanize voters ahead of a potential presidential campaign in 2028. Former President Barack Obama also called for voter support.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchallenged power for two more years,” Obama says in an ad. “You can stop Republicans in their tracks.”
Critics of the bill argue that California cannot follow the same path as other states. The current independent commission is considered fair and bipartisan.
Among the most vocal opponents of the referendum is Arnold Schwarzenegger, an actor and former Republican governor who pushed for the creation of the independent commission. “It makes no sense to fight Trump by becoming him,” Schwarzenegger said in September, arguing that the proposal would “take power away from the people.”
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Gerrymandering
Democrats expect to gain up to five seats in California if voters approve the referendum, offsetting the five that Republicans expect to gain with their new maps in Texas. Donald Trump’s party also wants to win other seats with the new maps in Missouri and North Carolina.
Generally, the redistribution process occurs every 10 years, after the census, to reflect population changes in a process known as redistricting. Politicians from both parties take advantage of the redistricting process to manipulate maps and favor certain candidates, in a practice known as gerrymandering.
The next census should only take place in 2030, but Trump began a policy of pressuring American states to draw up new maps ahead of schedule.
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In addition to California, other states with a Democratic majority such as Illinois, Maine, Oregon and New York are studying ways to redistrict their districts before the midterm elections.
