China’s economy will exceed US$23.8 trillion by 2030, says prime minister

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday (5) that the country’s economy will exceed 170 trillion yuan ($23.87 trillion) by 2030, presenting a major market opportunity for the world as trade restrictions increase globally.

In his speech at the opening ceremony of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Li criticized the tariffs and said China wants to reform the global economic trade system to make it more reasonable and transparent, especially for developing countries.

The tariffs are “seriously undermining international economic and trade rules and affecting the normal operation of companies in several countries,” he said, without mentioning the United States.

‘In five years, China’s economy is expected to exceed 170 trillion yuan, which will make new and important contributions to global economic growth,’ Li added.

China said its GDP will exceed 140 trillion yuan this year, and the projection until 2030 is in line with the proposals of its next five-year plan, which foresees annual growth of 4.17% over the next five years.

The CIIE was launched by President Xi Jinping in 2018 to promote China’s free trade credentials and combat criticism over its trade surplus with many countries.

But it has its skeptics, as the country’s trade surpluses with other markets only grew in the following years.

Although China’s supply of manufactured products to the world is growing, its contribution to global demand is less significant, with imports practically flat – a dynamic that, according to economists, fuels trade tension abroad and deflationary pressure at home.

This year, global trade has been hit hard by tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. They have thrown the US and China into a new trade war that has resulted in retaliatory actions throughout this year.

Last week, Xi and US President Donald Trump met in South Korea to reach a trade truce. The US agreed to reduce some tariffs on Chinese goods and lift some export controls, and China agreed to lift new export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets and resume purchases of North American soybeans.

But analysts say this may be no more than a fragile truce in a trade war whose causes are still unresolved.

In his speech, Li said China wants to increase its imports of high-quality products and repeatedly emphasized that the country is open for business and trade.

‘Let companies from all over the world develop in China with more ease, more comfort and more confidence,’ he said.