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At , the European Union managed, this Wednesday (5/11), to start — with great difficulty — a . But the commitment was accompanied by a series of concessions to try to convince the most reticent States.
The pact was announced this Wednesday morning by Denmark, which holds the presidency of the European Union. It aims for a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 90% by 2040 compared to 1990.
However, the agreement grants a certain flexibility by allowing the 27 countries in the bloc to purchase carbon credits abroad to cover up to 5% of this objective. Thus, the decarbonization target for European industries would, in practice, be 85%.
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On paper, the bloc maintains the ambition of cutting 90% of emissions by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. However, European countries will be able to acquire up to 10% of international carbon credits to achieve this objective — a flexibility designed to accommodate Italy’s interests.
During the public vote, ministers approved the European Commission’s proposal, authorizing member states to purchase carbon credits abroad to cover up to 5% of the target. The announcement was made by Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard, who chaired the negotiations.
Another concession was the postponement of the expansion of the carbon market for road transport and the heating of buildings: the measure, scheduled for 2027, was pushed to 2028. And to convince the most resistant countries, the European Union also agreed to discuss, in the future, the use of internal carbon credits.
Diplomatic marathon
After more than 18 hours of negotiations in Brussels, the European Union’s environment ministers turned the debate on new climate goals into a true diplomatic marathon, a stage for the clash between environmental rigor and economic competitiveness. Amid the impasse, the group even dismissed diplomats and translators, but continued with an informal debate during the early hours of Tuesday to Wednesday.
France, Italy and Poland led the group advocating looser rules and greater use of carbon credits, while Denmark, heading the European Council’s rotating presidency, pushed for stricter, longer-term targets.
Countries that defended the flexibility of climate objectives argued that European industry already faces high energy costs and that excessive regulation could harm competitiveness in relation to economies such as China and the United States.
Today, the European Commission proposes a 3% limit on the purchase of carbon credits when calculating emission reductions, but Italy and France are asking for an increase to 5%, while Poland goes further and wants a cap of 10%. Some Member States also suggest bringing forward the use of credits to 2031, five years before the originally scheduled date.
At the other end, Denmark insisted on more ambitious goals and sought to link the approval of climate objectives for 2040 to new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions). By linking the two discussions, Copenhagen increased pressure for more ambitious long-term goals, but the strategy also ended up contributing to the delay in negotiations.
The so-called NDCs are plans for the coming years in which countries detail how they intend to comply with the Paris Agreement, reducing gas emissions that cause global warming. These commitments are now updated every two years, and COP30, which will be held in Belém do Pará, marks the third round of these reviews.
The European Union’s old climate target predicted a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. Experts warn that weakening these commitments could compromise the credibility of the bloc, historically seen as a global reference in climate goals.
Delay could affect negotiations at the COP in Belém
The European Union is late in presenting its new NDC. The bloc missed the initial February deadline and also the September deadline, established so that the goals could be included in the United Nations synthesis report.
Experts highlight that the early release of these documents is essential so that they can be analyzed before the conference, allowing for more consistent negotiations during the Climate Conference, which begins in less than a week, in Belém do Pará.
Furthermore, the announcement of more ambitious targets by the European Union could act as a stimulus for other countries to expand their climate commitments.
Despite this European delay, the United Nations synthesis report pointed to advances in the quality and credibility of the new goals presented by other countries. Even so, projections indicate that the planet remains far from the main objective of the Paris Agreement, signed ten years ago: limiting global warming to 1.5°C. With current policies, the world is heading towards warming of between 2.3°C and 2.5°C. The good news is the reduction in this number, which previously pointed to 3°C to 3.5°C.
Meanwhile, time is running out. The expectation is that COP30 in Belém will serve to accelerate commitments and bring Europe closer to the role of climate leadership that has marked its trajectory in recent decades.
