Even the most advanced climate solutions may not save the much-loved trio, experts warn.
Everything passes, everything ends. According to new research, “everything” includes , and , to the chagrin of many.
Not even the most futuristic geoengineering technologies seem to be able to guarantee the future of coffee, cocoa and vineyard crops, in the face of gross climate change, according to the study this Tuesday in Environmental Research Letters.
Experimental methods such as Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) – which aims to cool the planet through the dispersion of reflective particles in the upper atmosphere – have very limited benefits. Although they can slightly reduce global temperatures, they cannot stabilize the irregular precipitation and humidity patterns that affect harvests.
The conclusions are worrying for ordinary consumers, but especially for millions of farmers who depend on these crops of enormous economic value. Rising temperatures and increasing climate unpredictability have already caused large variations in annual production, compromising income and the stability of local economies.
According to , the research team evaluated the effectiveness of SAI in 18 of the main grape, coffee and cocoa producing regions, in areas of Western Europe, South America and West Africa, in a model designed for the years between 2036 and 2045. Scientists looked at how this technique could affect plants’ temperature, precipitation, humidity and disease risk.
The results showed that, although SAI was able to reduce surface temperatures, only six of the 18 regions studied showed improvements in agricultural conditions compared to a future scenario without intervention. The rest remained vulnerable to climate instability.
The biggest obstacles to the success of the technique were the irregularity of rainfall and changes in humidity levels. These unfortunately continue to cause extreme phenomena, such as floods or droughts.
“Cocoa, for example, tolerates heat better than coffee or grapes, but is extremely vulnerable to pests and diseases caused by the combination of high temperatures, precipitation and humidity. The natural variability of the climate cannot be ignored either, as it creates very different results under the same SAI scenario, with direct impacts on farmers’ livelihoods”, says the study’s co-author, Ariel Morrison.
The SAI may offer some temporary relief in certain regions, but it does not constitute a lasting solution: “it may partially mitigate the rise in temperatures, but it does not solve the structural problems that affect luxury crops. Only adaptation strategies adjusted to each local context, investments in resilient agricultural practices and effective international cooperation can guarantee the future of these productions and the communities that depend on them.”
To save the “Holy Trinity” an intervention that combines innovation, political commitment and a global transition to truly sustainable agriculture will be necessary: technological solutions alone are not enough.
