The two days that tarnished Trump’s aura of absolute power

This week does not mean the beginning of the end of Trump’s second term. But it could be the end of the beginning

The myth of Donald Trump’s absolute power is based on the fact that everyone believes it is true.

Therefore, signs of vulnerability, successful challenges to his authority or omens of a not-so-distant future that he does not dominate represent a political danger for the president.

The first nine months of leadership of the second Trump administration were based on the premise that if you don’t like what he’s doing, try to stop him. Trump has, in many cases, overstepped the legal and political checks and balances designed to constrain presidents and imposed his audacious vision of vast executive authority.

It destroyed decades of convention at home and abroad, launching trade wars and rejecting allies. He sent troops to American cities, triggering constitutional crises; destroyed entire government departments; and intimidated universities, law firms, media organizations and company heads, who bowed to his will.

The republic’s defenses are not dead. Constitutional and political accountability is always retrospective and takes some time to be activated. That’s one reason Trump’s wild and turbulent start to his second term has raised fears of autocracy.

But the sense of permanence and omnipotence conjured by the president has just taken a dent, following an unseasonal election night for Democrats, apparent skepticism among Supreme Court justices regarding Trump’s emergency tariff powers and reminders that the Constitution should deprive him of a third term.

The winning candidates for governor, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, may have only served in blue states. But they suffered bigger-than-expected defeats to rivals who embraced Trump and MAGA values.

Even before the big victories, Democrats discovered a taste for fighting the president’s fire with their own. California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday praised voters who backed a reorganization plan to combat Trump’s dominance in Texas with words. “We stood firm and strong… after provoking the bear, this bear roared.”

Another Democratic governor, JB Pritzker of Illinois, spent several weeks resisting Trump’s social media threat to impose “Chipocalypse Now” on the Windy City. And some Democratic-run states have committed to developing their own public health guidelines, following Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s gutting of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have also been minor setbacks for the president, such as the reinstatement of Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show on ABC after an outcry from viewers and advertisers. And more universities have pledged to resist the administration’s attempts to impose its ideology by refusing federal funding. The more entities that show that the President is not an unstoppable force, the more the momentum can turn into a rising opposition.

Political movements always start on a small scale. It took years for the civil rights movement and resistance to the Vietnam War to become a reality. But each show of dissent generates more. As former President Barack Obama said on the latest episode of Marc Maron’s podcast: “What’s needed in these situations is for some people to stand up and give other people courage. And then there are more people who stand up and say, ‘Yeah, no, that’s not who we are. That’s not our idea of ​​America.’

Trump may respond harshly to Democratic success

But don’t believe the talk that Trump is already a lame duck. Presidents have great power — even those who don’t see the office as a throne, as Trump often seems to do. His control of a compliant Republican Congress means there is no oversight in Washington of his aggressive power plays – like his apparently lawless bombing of alleged drug smugglers’ boats in the Pacific and Caribbean.

Every indicator that Trump is losing control is counterbalanced by a data point that shows his zeal for control – like the corporate bosses who rushed to finance the new multimillion-dollar ballroom proposed for the White House.

And the lesson of Trump’s presidential career is that he responds to setbacks with belligerence, honoring his lifelong mantra that all scores must be settled.

Trump has already classified the California elections as fraudulent and hinted at action by the federal government to try to ignore the will of voters. His attempt to redraw congressional maps appears to be a new way to bypass democracy. He likes to mete out punishment and has warned New Yorkers that he would cut off federal funding if they dared to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist.

But the city that Trump called home, and where he now almost never sleeps, refused to be intimidated and responded to his anti-migrant purge by choosing the 34-year-old Ugandan-born Muslim as mayor.

There is another sign that the political environment may be changing – reflected in several polls that show Americans have lost trust in Trump, believe the country is in bad shape and the economy is struggling.

It is not wise to read too much into a handful of elections. And Democrats have a sad recent history of self-sabotage.

But Tuesday was the latest sign that Republicans face tough midterm elections next year. Early retirement could beckon GOP lawmakers who have tough races. And MAGA strategists’ claims of a new political realignment are now less credible, as they were based on Trump’s impressive inroads with minorities last year. He, for example, won 46% of Latino voters nationally, critically eroding a vital Democratic coalition. But on Tuesday, Sherrill won New Jersey Latinos 68% to 31%, which reversed the Republican Party’s previous gains.

The Constitution could end up derailing Trump

Trump rejects accusations that he is on an unconstitutional power trip incompatible with America’s founding values. “They told me I was a king… and I said, ‘No, I don’t think so,’” he said Wednesday.

But he also thinks he possesses indomitable power. “I’m not a dictator (…) (but) I have the right to do whatever I want,” Trump told his office in August, referring to the repression of crime in the city center.

Trump’s misperceptions about the powers of the presidency and his persistence in testing constitutional limits may have been fueled by the conservative majority of the Supreme Court, which ruled in one of its now-defunct criminal cases that presidents have substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts while in office.

But those same judges appeared disconcerted by Trump’s invocation of emergency customs powers. Chief Justice John Roberts, for example, questioned why he should be able to impose duties on “any product, from any country, in any quantity, for any period of time.”

Justice Neil Gorsuch, a first-term Trump appointee, questioned whether the president’s approach represented “a one-way rush toward the gradual but steady accumulation of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”

Just as it is smart not to overanalyze individual elections, it is never a good idea to anticipate a Supreme Court decision. But whatever the outcome of the case, Wednesday’s hearing showed the constitutional system in action, with the judicial branch examining the executive branch after it apparently interfered with the authority of the legislative branch.

It wasn’t the first time in recent days that the Constitution angered Trump. The rumor among MAGA Republicans that there were ways around the ban on presidents seeking a third term appears to have been put to rest.

“If you read it, it’s pretty clear,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling to South Korea last month. “I’m not allowed to apply. It’s a shame.”

Trump’s words came after House Speaker Mike Johnson said he had spoken to the president about the matter. “I don’t see the path to that,” he told reporters.

Still, Trump being a Trump, this may not be the end of it. After all, he tried to stay in office in 2020 after losing the election with Joe Biden.

But a risky political week for the president suggests that talk of continuing beyond 2028 is a bit premature, even before he completes his first year in office.

It is already difficult to imagine the constitutional gymnastics necessary for a third term. But growing signs of opposition, recent polls showing his approval rating falling and new election results suggest that, in any case, there may be little public appetite for it. And no one knows what the state of the economy, the country or the world will be in three years. And the energy levels, enthusiasm and health of an 80-something President would be a big question.

JD Vance has a special interest in these things. The vice president wrote in X that it was “idiotic” to overreact to Tuesday’s elections. But he acknowledged the hardening conventional wisdom that Republicans have not adequately addressed the high costs of food, housing and health care.

“I care about my fellow citizens — especially young Americans — being able to have a decent life, I care about immigration and our sovereignty, and I care about establishing peace abroad so that our resources can be focused at home. If you care about these things too, let’s work together,” Vance wrote.

It sounds a bit like an election speech for 2028.

Vance owes his current power base to Trump, so he has to be careful. But the political winds seem to be changing a little. After a year in which everything was Trump, all the time, the clean sight of Americans going to the polls allowed his opponents to dream of a post-Trump era. Although they would prefer not to, Republican Party leaders must do the same, because the New Jersey and Virginia races proved the truism that Trump can reach parts of the electorate that other Republicans cannot. Barring constitutional arson, Trump will never be at the top of another Republican Party list.

This week does not mean the beginning of the end of Trump’s second term. But it could be the end of the beginning.