Former president is the only one who would beat the current president in a possible second round; the former first lady and the governor of São Paulo are in a technical tie with the PT member
The Gerp Institute’s 10th national survey on the 2026 Presidential Elections, carried out between November 1st and 5th, 2025 and released this Friday (7), indicates a scenario of consolidated polarization, but with new movements in the conservative camp. The survey, which interviewed 2,000 people, reveals that the main names on the right appear numerically ahead of President Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT) in second round simulations.
The survey was carried out through telephone interviews and has a margin of error of 2.24 percentage points, plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95.55%.
Even though he is ineligible, the former president (PL) remains the main reference of the right and is the only one who would beat Lula in a second round, with 47% to 42%.
Even ineligible, Jair Bolsonaro is the only candidate who would beat Lula in a second round, with 47% to 42%
The former first lady and the governor of , , emerge as natural heirs of Bolsonarism, presenting distinct but complementary profiles.
Michelle reaches 30% of voting intentions in the first round and technically ties with Lula in a possible second round, with 47% to 44% of the votes. Its strength is concentrated in female and evangelical voters.
Michelle Bolsonaro reaches 30% of voting intentions in the first round and technically ties with Lula in a possible second round, with 47% to 44%
Tarcísio de Freitas, in turn, registered 21% of voting intentions in the first round, against 33% for Lula. However, in a direct confrontation in the second round, he is also technically tied with the PT member, with 44% to 43%.
Tarcísio de Freitas technically ties with Lula in a possible second round, with 44% to 43%
Second round scenarios:
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Bolsonaro 47% x 42% Lula
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Michelle 47% x 44% Lula
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Tarcisio 44% x 43% Lula
In all second round scenarios, the conservative camp is numerically ahead, while PT maintains a solid base, especially in the Northeast and among low-income voters, according to the survey.
Succession
The survey also investigated the preference of Bolsonarista voters for succession, if the former president is unable to run. Among his supporters, , while 24% prefer Tarcísio. The former president’s sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro, were mentioned by 7% and 4% of respondents, respectively.
