Russia has the capacity to carry out a limited attack on NATO territory at any time, but its decision to act will depend on the approach of the Western allies, warned the Lieutenant General of the German Army, Alexander Sollfrank. TASR informs according to a Reuters report.
“If you look at Russia’s current capabilities and combat power, Russia could launch a minor attack on NATO territory as early as tomorrow,” Sollfrank noted. According to him, it would be something “small, fast, regionally limited, nothing big – Russia is too tied to Ukraine for that”.
A potential large-scale attack
Sollfrank, who heads the German military’s operational command and oversees defense planning, also reiterated NATO warnings that Russia could potentially launch a large-scale attack on the 32-nation alliance as early as 2029 if it continues its arms drive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejects aggressive intentions, saying that the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops in February 2022 was a defense against NATO’s expansionist ambitions towards his country, Reuters reminds.
Russian tactics of hybrid warfare
Despite the setbacks in Ukraine, according to the German general, Russian air forces retain considerable combat power and their nuclear and missile forces remain intact. While the Russian Black Sea Fleet suffered significant losses, other fleets were not reduced, Sollfrank recalled.
Recent intrusions by drones into Polish airspace have raised concerns in the West about possible escalation, Reuters reminds.
Hybrid warfare and intimidation
According to Sollfrank, whether Moscow decides to attack NATO will depend on three factors: Russian military strength, military performance and leadership. The conclusion, he added, is that a Russian attack on NATO is possible and whether it happens “will largely depend on our behavior,” he added, referring to NATO’s deterrence efforts.
The general noted that Moscow’s hybrid war tactics, including drone incursions, should be seen as part of a broader strategy that also includes the war against Ukraine, Reuters quotes.
“The Russians call it a non-linear war. In their doctrine, it’s a war before resorting to conventional weapons. And they threaten to use nuclear weapons — which is a war of intimidation,” Sollfrank said. According to him, Russia’s goal is to provoke NATO and at the same time estimate its reaction. Russia is said to also want to spread uncertainty and fear in NATO countries, harm, spy on them and test the resilience of the alliance.
