According to a survey by the Gerp Institute, the former first lady reaches 30% of voting intentions in the first round and appears in a technical tie with Lula in the second, with 47% to 44%
This Friday (7), the Gerp Institute released its 10th national survey on the 2026 Presidential Elections, revealing a scenario of strong polarization, but also of significant rearrangements within the conservative camp.
The survey, carried out between the 1st and 5th of November 2025, shows thatMichelle Bolsonaro (PL), e appear in a situation of technical draw in second round simulations.
The results reinforce the fierce dispute between the progressive camp and the different strands of conservatism, which is now fragmented between leaders linked to former president Bolsonaro and new important political figures.
The research indicates a margin of error of 2.24 percentage points, plus or minus, and a confidence level of 95.55%. These numbers consolidate the trend of polarization that has marked the national political scene since 2018, but indicate that the 2026 election could have unprecedented developments within the Brazilian right.
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Conservative camp
The main highlights of this round come from the right, which shows clear signs of leadership renewal. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, emerge as natural heirs of Bolsonarism, with distinct and complementary profiles.
Michelle reaches 30% of voting intentions in the first round and technically ties with Lula in the second round, 47% to 44%. Tarcísio recorded 21% against Lula (33%) in the first round and also tied in
second, with 44% to 43%. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, maintains the highest rate of recall and preference, reinforcing his position as the symbolic epicenter of the right.
In second round scenarios, the balance persists:
• Bolsonaro x Lula: 47% to 42%
• Michelle x Lula: 47% a 44%
• Tarcísio x Lula: 44% to 43%
In all cases, the conservative camp appears numerically ahead, while PT maintains a solid base — especially in the Northeast and among low-income voters.
Distinct strengths and profiles
The data shows Tarcísio consolidated as the name of technical management and administrative efficiency, with greater appeal to the middle class and urban voters, while Michelle represents the emotional and religious link of the
Bolsonarism, with strong support among women and evangelicals. “Bolsonaro continues to be the symbolic epicenter of Brazilian politics, but the right-wing camp already recognizes consistent alternatives. Tarcísio and Michelle share the same electorate, but with different languages — he, that of efficiency; she, that of faith and popular identification”, analyzes Gabriel Pazos, president of the Gerp Institute.
Bolsonaro
Even out of power and under judicial restrictions, Jair Bolsonaro remains the main reference of the right and the only one to beat Lula in the second round (47% to 42%). Among his supporters, 30% support him nominating Michelle as a candidate, 24% prefer Tarcísio, 7% cite Eduardo Bolsonaro and 4% Flávio Bolsonaro.
Preference of Bolsonarista voters:
• Michelle Bolsonaro – 30%
• Tarcísio de Freitas – 24%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro – 7%
• Flávio Bolsonaro – 4%
• None of them – 25%
• Don’t know / Didn’t answer – 9%
The numbers reinforce that Bolsonaro maintains high vote transfer power and remains a central figure on the right, even without a confirmed candidacy.
Government scenario
In the government camp, research shows fragmentation and the absence of a natural successor. If Lula does not run for re-election, the electorate will be divided between Geraldo Alckmin (24%) and23%), followed by Flávio Dino (9%) and Camilo Santana (5%).
• Geraldo Alckmin – 24%
• Fernando Haddad – 23%
• Flávio Dino – 9%
• Camilo Santana – 5%
• None of them – 26%
• Don’t know / Didn’t answer – 12%
The result indicates that Lulismo maintains a solid base, but faces difficulties in transferring votes to another name without the president’s personal charisma.
Other names gain regional visibility
Governor Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) reaches 30% in the South in specific scenarios, while Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO) maintain strength in their states. These movements expand the range of possibilities for an eventual recomposition of the political center.
Tarcisio
Despite national competitiveness, the majority of voters (52%) prefer Tarcísio to remain at the head of the São Paulo government, while 20% would like him to run for President. Another 28% were unable to answer. “It’s a sign of approval, not rejection. The public understands that he is still consolidating his leadership”, observes Gabriel Pazos.
Lula government’s assessment improves
The survey also recorded an improvement in the federal government’s assessment: Lula’s approval rose from 38% to 42%, while disapproval fell from 53% to 49%. Another 9% did not know or preferred not to give their opinion.
The advance is stronger among women, low-income voters and those from the Northeast — the main bases of PTism. “There are signs of recovery in confidence, especially in popular and
among beneficiaries of social programs”, analyzes Pazos.
General trend
In general, the survey indicates that anti-PTism has lost intensity, while anti-Bolsonarism has stabilized. The result reinforces a scenario of dispute between well-defined blocks, with less
ideological, gives room for more pragmatism.
According to the Gerp Institute, the 2026 election tends to repeat the logic of the previous ones, but with new faces, different speeches and rearrangements within the same political fields.
National survey by Instituto Gerp carried out between November 1st and 5th, 2025, with 2,000 telephone interviews (CATI system). Margin of error: ±2.24 percentage points. Confidence level: 95.55%.
