The American president may often claim – on the way to it – that the US moves in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, the attack on Iran and the extension of the Abraham Accords will bring peace and shape a new one, but for now all he has achieved is an idiosyncratic situation that is neither war, nor peace.
Developments in recent days, but also weeks, on three of the former hot-fronts of its conflict with Iran and the elements of what Tehran calls the Axis of Resistance, demonstrate that coordinated policy between Washington and Tel Aviv is passing a phase where ceasefires and their repeated violations occur alongside backroom talks and official negotiations.
The latter are actually being conducted on the one hand under a regime of “controlled” tension and on the other under the fear of an uncontrolled escalation in the event of a collapse of the truce.
Gaza as a testing ground
This situation is now clearly expressed in the Gaza Strip, where more than 100 Palestinians have lost their lives from the attacks of the Israeli forces, which are launched for trivial reasons and after accusations that Hamas violates the truce.
At the same time, of course, Hamas continues to hand over the bodies of the hostages it finds under the ruins, as it is bound by the truce agreement, and the Israeli forces remain behind the “Yellow Line” which is the limit of their retreat during the first phase of the truce agreement.
Beyond that, behind-the-scenes talks on the next phase of the truce, which would see Hamas disarmed and hand over control of the Strip to an international force, appear to be moving forward, with Donald Trump saying only that the multinational force, which will likely include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, “will happen very soon. And Gaza is working very well.”
He added: “You don’t often hear about problems and I will tell you that there are countries that volunteered if there was a problem with Hamas.”
Trump’s statements come at a time when it became known that the US presented a proposal to the UN Security Council for a related resolution that would recognize this international stabilization force and give it jurisdiction for two years.
These come a few days after the civil-military coordination center for the reconstruction of Gaza that the US opened in Israel at Kiryat Gat about 30 kilometers from the Strip, began its operation. The. The center is under the command of Central Command (Centcom) Lt. Gen. Patrick Frank and under it are the approximately 200 American soldiers deployed for this purpose.
The pressures on Lebanon for Hezbollah
Correspondingly, in Lebanon, where Israel strikes almost daily now, but also with increasing intensity, discussions and moves to disarm Hezbollah continue under US pressure.
In addition to US Special Envoy Thomas Barak’s calls for disarmament and direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, the Trump administration is reportedly moving to realign the role of the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 oversight committee into a coordination center in Israel overseen by Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus.
Ortagus reportedly pressured Lebanese officials to reactivate this committee – which is primarily made up of military personnel – and to change its format to include civilian personnel. The refusal of the Lebanese side to accept such a thing, as well as to hold direct talks with Israel, as both the US and Israel itself are reportedly asking for, brought various reactions. Thomas Barak called Lebanon a “failed state” that will hardly succeed in disarming Hezbollah, and at the same time Israel began to intensify its strikes, ignoring UNIFIL’s calls to stop the attacks.
The above led the new president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, to state that Lebanon probably has no other choice but to finally agree to direct talks and negotiations with Israel, which would amount to its recognition. Hezbollah reacted to this with a statement in which it asserted that: “Lebanon is not at all interested in succumbing to aggressive blackmail or being dragged into political negotiations with the Zionist enemy. Such negotiations serve no national interest and pose existential risks to the Lebanese entity and its sovereignty.”
The great bazaar of Syria
As far as the situation in Syria is concerned, there are also movements like the above where the USA and Israel are acting in parallel in the gray zone that is created between truce, operations and diplomacy.
More specifically in southern Syria, Israel continues to advance with raids inside Syrian territory near the Druze region. A few days ago he even set up a checkpoint in Quneitra. At the same time, the government of Israel continues to have behind-the-scenes contacts for a general settlement of bilateral relations with the government of the leader of Mrs. Ahmed Al Saraa, while Damascus has similar discussions with Washington. It is indicative that on Monday Al Saraa is expected to arrive at the White House to have direct talks with Donald Trump himself.
Ahead of this meeting, Reuters reported just yesterday that Syria and the US have agreed to give an air base to the American side just outside Damascus to the south, that is, to the side of the Israeli-backed Druze.
This information, if true, brings completely new data to the Syrian situation, as just a few weeks ago Al-Sharaa, according to reports, had met in Moscow with Vladimir Putin about the two bases that Russia continues to maintain in the country, the Khmeimim air base and the naval base in Tartus.
It also raises questions about the role the US could play in the country, where it is now clear that there is an open conflict of interest (as in Gaza) between US ally Turkey and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, also a US ally.
Of course, regardless of these questions and the new facts that an American base in Syria may bring, the pattern is similar to that in Gaza and Lebanon. The US takes on the role of overseer of developments in the Middle East with a mild military presence combined with political power and at the same time in coordination with the still warring Israel despite the truces, but also with the countries that want to integrate into the Abraham agreements.
