China’s exports fell 1.1% in October compared to the same month in 2024, shortly after the trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping
After months of constant growth, China’s exports recorded an unexpected drop of 1.1% (in dollars) in October, compared to the same period of the previous year. This is the first contraction since the start of the trade war with the United States, a sign that tensions between the world’s two largest economies are beginning to be reflected more clearly in China’s trade balance.
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the decline in exports contrasts with the 8.3% increase recorded in September, the best result in six months. An economist cited by states that the decline was the “biggest surprise this year” for the markets, as growth of around 3% was expected.
The Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows signs of slowing down, growing 4.8% in the third quarter, compared to 5.4% in the first and 5.2% in the second. The situation is seen as a direct reflection of the trade war triggered by Donald Trump, who imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese products half a year ago.
According to , the drop in exports is, in part, due to the exhaustion of the “artificial boost that had sustained them during the summer”, when Chinese companies brought forward shipments to avoid tariffs. Another important factor was the appreciation of the yuan (Chinese currency), which “made sales abroad more expensive and reduced the competitiveness” of Chinese products on the international market.
Despite this setback, the leaders of the two world powers are seeking to ease tension. The , held in South Korea, resulted in a one-year trade truce agreement, which provides for the partial reduction of some taxes and the temporary suspension of others. The pact aims to “reduce tension in a year marked by the volatility of bilateral trade”, particularly those related to Chinese control of rare earths and American restrictions on technological products.
The effects of the conflict are evident in bilateral relations: Chinese exports to the US fell 25.2% in October, after a 27% drop in September. Until now, this reduction had been offset by increased sales to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the European Union, but even these markets began to slow down – exports to the EU grew just 0.9%, well below the 14.2% in September, and those destined for Southeast Asia increased 11%, the lowest value since February.
The trend was also seen in Africa and Latin America. On the African continent, growth fell to 10.5%, after a 56% jump in the previous month, while in Latin America the increase was limited to 2.1%, far from the 15.2% recorded in September. Experts point out that Mexico, under pressure from Washington, “restricted controls on Chinese imports”, contributing to this regional slowdown.
On the other hand, Chinese imports grew 1% in October, a modest value compared to 7.4% in September and below analysts’ forecast, which expected 4.5%. China’s trade surplus fell to 90 billion dollars (around 78 billion euros), which represents a drop of 5.7% in annual terms.
Still, experts maintain a relatively optimistic view. The chief economist of the Macquaire group, Larry Hu, stated that “trade data tends to be very volatile” and that exports were the big surprise of the year, but that they have been strong and “should remain strong over the next six to 12 months”, cited by the Financial Times.
In a context of internal real estate crisis, weak domestic consumption and persistent geopolitical tensions, foreign trade continues to be “an essential pillar for the recovery of the Chinese economy”, according to the South China Morning Post. However, the drop in exports raises the alarm that China’s growth may depend less on its industrial strength and more on its ability to adapt to global changes in international trade.
