The former president’s was a coup. Perhaps the most damaging to understanding the effects of politics on the economy since redemocratization.
In that depressing session in April 2016, Dilma was freed from assuming, while in office, the consequences of her irresponsible management. Once the president is removed, GDP would drop by 7% and unemployment would reach 12%.
To this day, it is blamed on subsequent governments, which approved labor and social security reforms, in addition to preparing the ground for the tax reform and unlocking gigantic investments in sanitation.
Proof that the party never admitted Dilma’s fiasco is that it nominated her for the presidency of the Brics bank, a sinecure in Shanghai with a salary of approximately R$260,000 a month.
History repeats itself.
In his third year of a new term, the economy under Lula is expected to grow 2.3% and unemployment stands at 5.6%. Under Dilma, at this same point, GDP was growing 3% and unemployment was at 5.4%. But there is a fundamental difference — for the worse.
The main indicator of a country’s financial health is the comparison between its debt and the size of the economy, the so-called debt/GDP ratio. The higher it is, the greater the propensity for a crisis of confidence, which leads investors to the dollar and an inflationary explosion — as we saw quickly happen with Dilma.
In five and a half years under the former president, the debt/GDP ratio increased 14 points, reaching 66.6%. In four years under Lula 3, the expected increase is 9 points, ending 2026 at 82.4% (IFI/Senado). It’s as if the tidy house in a photo today hides much more dirt under the carpet.
There is no money for and , but Lula will put the country in more debt to be re-elected in a current environment of market condescension. This shouldn’t last.
If it wins, we will finally see the PT take on the problem, which will be unprecedented and educational. If you lose, it will be someone else’s fault.
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